000 AGXX40 KNHC 031726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 126 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY LIGHT/GENTLE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE BASIN. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS SLICING ACROSS THE NW GULF OFFSHORE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 30-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FAR EASTERN CUBA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO SW FLORIDA WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IMPACTING THE SE GULF. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRES NEAR SE LOUISIANA WILL MEANDER IN THE N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MON. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE ATLC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT/GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS AND 0-2 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW HALF. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE LEE OF THE YUCATAN WHERE THE TYPICAL THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGHING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EACH NIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH AND SEAS TO 3-5 FT...AND ALSO ALONG THE NE MEXICAN COAST WHERE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH BUILDING SEAS TO 2-4 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CURRENTLY NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ATLC RIDGING IS NOSING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF BERTHA WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND 7-10 FT SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF VENEZUELA. THIS AREA OF STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME AS THE RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD WITH BERTHA CONTINUING TO LIFT TO THE NW-N. WINDS WILL PEAK AT NEAR GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-14 FT NEAR THERE INTO EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX SLIGHTLY AS THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 59W MOVES THROUGH THE BASIN WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WATERS BY THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. A POCKET OF FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON THROUGH EARLY TUE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS MOVING NW. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS DISRUPTED WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS NOW REDEVELOPING AS IT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. A HEAVY RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING STILL A CONCERN THERE. BERTHA IS STILL FORECAST TO RECURVE TO THE N AND THEN EVENTUALLY NE LIFTING N OF 31N BY TUE MORNING. ASSOCIATED IMPACTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE THE CENTER AS IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON THE NE SIDE WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE TIGHTEST BETWEEN BERTHA AND ATLC RIDGING HELPING TO ENHANCE WINDS ON THAT SIDE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE TROUGHING HAS DRIFTED W OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 22N W OF 76W. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH SE WINDS IS E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE AS IT WEAKENS WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TO THE S OF BERTHA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL STORM LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN BY THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THIS PATTERN. EXPECT GENERALLY 4-6 FT SEAS E OF 77W AND 1-3 FT SEAS W OF 77W AND INSIDE THE BAHAMAS IN THE WAKE OF BERTHA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.