000 AGXX40 KNHC 271800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF TEXAS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG ROUGHLY 26N/27N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. LOCALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE OFF NW COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA MOST EVENINGS THROUGH MID WEEK...ENHANCED BY PASSAGE OF NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH MON. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER NOTED IN GLOBAL MODELS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE 3-4 DAYS ALL BASINS. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND DAY 4 FOR TROPICAL N ATLANTIC. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...REACH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE. STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE THU. GFS AND UKMET MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH A LOW FORMING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N137W MONDAY WHICH THEN INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO TENDENCY OF GFS TO AGGRESSIVELY SPIN WAVES INTO LOWS AND NEW MODEL CHARACTERISTICS OF UKMET. RECENT ECMWF MODEL RUNS DO NOT DEPICT CYCLOGENESIS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG 28N WILL MEANDER A LITTLE TODAY THEN SAG SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 26N MON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS. ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N OFF NE FLORIDA LATE MON. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT MON NIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WED...BUT MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER GULF STREAM BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE THU. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF HAITI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.