000 AGXX40 KNHC 200651 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS STAMPING OUT A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS OFF THE N COAST OF THE PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS AROUND HIGH PRES MEANDERING OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE GULF WILL CONTROL THE FLOW THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN...MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ATLC. THE 00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH WELL E OF THE AREA BEGINNING MON...CAPPING WINDS AT 20 KT AND SEAS AT 7 FT BETWEEN 35W AND 40W MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING THE WINDS/SEAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W. THE NEW SOLUTION IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED ECMWF. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN THE GFS...NOT CERTAIN THAT ITS SOLUTION IS THE BEST SOLUTION AVAILABLE ON ITS OWN. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE RUNS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...BLENDED THE NEW GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS 1:4. IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A BARB OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WARNING HERE...WAITING FOR MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE TROUGHING N OF THE AREA OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST MIGRATES WESTWARD TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION...BUT EVEN IT SEEMS WEAK COMPARED TO THE 0234 UTC ASCAT-B PASS. THE STRONGER GFS GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NO LONGER CARRIES A SYSTEM NW FROM THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC TOWARD THE SW N ATLC BEGINNING AROUND THU. WITH THE GFS NOW AGREEING WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING AND THE OTHER MODELS THERE...IT IS FAVORED OVERALL IN THE SW N ATLC. THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF 20-25 KT E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND HISPANIOLA. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND BEST INITIALIZED MODEL HERE. CONFIDENCE WANES SLIGHTLY IN THE GFS FORECAST WITH THE TROUGHING JUST E OF FLORIDA. THE GFS HOLDS THIS TROUGHING FARTHER E THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BEGINS TO RETROGRADE INTO FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH TUE. THE ECMWF IS THE WESTERN-MOST MODEL WITH THE TROUGH. A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS MAY BE BEST HERE. WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST RELYING PRIMARILY ON THE ECMWF...BLENDING IN THE 00Z GFS THIS CYCLE CREATES A REASONABLE SOLUTION. THIS BLEND WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE SW N ATLC...WITH AN EXCEPTION MADE FOR THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE THE STRONGER GFS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE MWW3 WERE PREFERRED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.