000 AGXX40 KNHC 160546 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS UNAVAILABLE FOR BLENDING. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL USED WITH MANUAL TWEAKS USING NAWIPS MODEL FIELDS. NWPS UNAVAILABLE...MWWS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N85W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPED BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO JUST S OF THE MS DELTA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SE AND WILL SOON REACH THE NE TX COASTAL PLAINS. A SECOND TROUGH IS ANALYZED INLAND AND MAY PUSH SE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP S INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF WELL TO THE N OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING...AND MOVE SLOWLY E PERHAPS BRIEFLY STALLING... ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28.5N BY EARLY FRI. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THEN RE-APPEAR ON THU AFTERNOON NEAR 24N86W. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT N THU NIGHT WITH A HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR 25N84W LATE FRI WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE MS DELTA. EXPECT THE HIGH TO STALL NEAR 29N84W LATE SAT THROUGH LATE SUN. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SE-S 5-10 KT RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD E THIS EVENING TO ACROSS THE WATERS EVERYWHERE N OF 24N W OF 93W...WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT EXPECTED OVER THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N W OF 90W ON THU NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE SE- S RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF LATE THU NIGHT. FOR NOW EXPECTING 20 KT MAXIMUM CONDITIONS OVER THE NW WATERS. EXPECTING THE 10-15 KT SW-W FLOW...WITH SMALL AREAS OF 15-20 KT...TO CONTINUE OVER THE NE AND E-CENTRAL GULF TODAY THROUGH THU AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AGAIN OVER THE NE PORTION THU NIGHT...THEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THE RIDGE AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CENTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LOSE IDENTITY TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE-E 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE S OF 24N TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THU WITH WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF BECOMING SE AT 15-20 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT CONDITIONS NEAR 23N90W EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS UNAVAILABLE FOR BLENDING. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL USED WITH MANUAL TWEAKS USING NAWIPS MODEL FIELDS. NWPS UNAVAILABLE...MWWS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NW PORTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN. EXPECT STRONG TRADES TO CONTINUE OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... ROUGHLY WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11-15N BETWEEN 68-77W TODAY. THE AFFECTED AREA IS THEN FORECAST TO EXPAND N TO 18N AND EXPAND W TO 82W ON THU-SUN. THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AGAIN THU EVENING OFF THE N AND NW COASTS OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA S OF 17N EACH EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS UNAVAILABLE FOR BLENDING. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL USED WITH MANUAL TWEAKS USING NAWIPS MODEL FIELDS. NWPS UNAVAILABLE...MWWS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING 31N55W TO EXTREME SE FLORIDA WILL SHIFT A TAD S AND TERMINATE ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK ON THU. THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY N ON FRI WHILE RETRACTING E AND TERMINATING ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED N OF THE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON THU NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF 75W THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N... EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEGINNING THU NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT 20-25 KT CONDITIONS EACH EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.