000 AGXX40 KNHC 261826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 226 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. NWPS FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NE GULF...2-4 FT OVER THE SE AND CENTRAL GULF...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RIDGING PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HELP TO STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE SW GULF BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. NWPS FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...7-7 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS...4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...AND 5-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCLUDING THE TIMING OF THE TROPICAL WAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS. MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FOR WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RESPECT TO TROUGH/LOW OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ALONG 27N WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND THEN RETREATING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE LATER PERIODS. WHILE ALL MODELS DEPICT A TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS THIS WEEKEND...THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW PRESSURE WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE STRONGER. THE GFS KEEPS A WEAK LOW/TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW OVER THE NW WATERS...THEN SINKING THE LOW SW OVER FLORIDA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NW WATERS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.