000 AGXX40 KNHC 010820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 420 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND THROUGH WED THEN STRONGLY WEIGHTED ECMWF BLEND. CONFIDENCE LOW. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS AS DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS W HALF OF BASIN. SFC TROUGH NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UNDER UPPER TROUGH ATTM...BUT EXTENDS FARTHER S INTO E BAY OF CAMPECHE. RECENT OBS AND ASCAT PASSES SHOW SE TO SSE WINDS 15 KT AND LOCALLY 15-20 KT PREVAILING E OF TROUGH TO ABOUT 86W WHERE SEAS ARE 4-5 FT WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 6 FT POSSIBLE N OF 26N. GLOBAL MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF SFC LOW ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE-WED...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING AN ASSOCIATED TROF AXIS EXTENDING NW TO CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST LATE TUE SHIFTING TO ALONG MEXICAN COAST WED. HOWEVER...GFS REMAINS OUTLIER BEYOND THIS AND LIFTS LOW N TO OFF NW COAST OF YUCATAN BY FRI WITH VORT LOBE GENERATED TO THE E LIFTING N ACROSS CENTRAL GULF AND THEN NE INTO BIG BEND REGION. GIVEN THE FACT THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IN THE EPAC S OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THIS TIME...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO HAVE TWINS DEVELOP ON BOTH SIDES OF MEXICAN ISTHMUS...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO BLEND A CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. NWPS RUN BASED ON THIS OUTPUT SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR 1 AM UPDATE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA ALONG 25-26N... ANCHORED ON 1030+ HIGH ACROSS E ATLC. COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY S ACROSS N PORTIONS OF SW N ATLC TO CONTINUE SE NEXT FEW DAYS AND FURTHER WEAKEN RIDGE...WHILE HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT AND ACROSS NE U.S. SHIFTS SE AND REINFORCES RIDGE ACROSS SW N ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH WED. VERY RECENT ASCAT PASSES CAPTURED 25-30 KT WINDS OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA E OF 74.5W WHERE EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES HAS SHOWN SEAS TO 8 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST TO THE W OF THIS AREA...AND THINK SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO 10 FT OFF COLOMBIA ATTM. ALSO CAPTURED BY ASCAT WAS SE WINDS 20 KT BUILDING ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS E OF 86.5W WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY BUILDING 6-7 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CARIB MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL. WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND THEN INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MON AND PERSIST THROUGH WED AS HIGH SHIFTS SE ACROSS NW ATLC AND SETTLES ALONG 30N BY WED AFTERNOON. LOW PRES ACROSS NW ATLC ATTM WILL HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT OUT BY WED AND ATLC RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS SW N ATLC AND ENHANCE GRADIENT IN CARIB W OF 65 FOR THU AND FRI. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH GULF OF MEXICO CYCLOGENESIS...WHICH WILL AFFECT FORECAST FOR NW PORTIONS BEYOND THU. ATTM AM CONTINUING TO BLEND GOOD PORTION OF ECMWF WITH GFS BEYOND WED...BUT GFS IS REMAINING ADAMANT IN LIFTING LOW NE ACROSS E GULF MEX NEXT WEEKEND. RECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT BUILDING IN ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 13N BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 61W ATTM. SEAS RUNNING 8-9 FT ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS DIPPING DOWN TO 28-29N ALONG 70W...AND IS FORCING ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO AREA ALONG 25-26N FROM STRONG ATLC HIGH TO WEAKEN. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...WITH FRESH TRADES 15-20 KT THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND INTO WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRONT TO MOVE SE WITH REINFORCING BOUNDARY BEHIND IT TO GRADUALLY CATCH UP AND MERGE E OF AREA BY 72 HOURS. HIGH BEHIND FRONT SHIFTING SE OFF MID ATLC COAST TO SINK SE AND REACH ALONG 30N BY WED AND RECONNECT WITH ATLC RIDGE THU-FRI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE S AND SE ACROSS WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE STALLING FROM NEAR 25N70W INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. GRADIENT ACROSS NW AND W PORTIONS TO BRIEFLY TIGHTEN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEW HIGH SHIFTS SE...AND INCREASE WINDS W OF 75W TO 20 KT...FIRST STARTING NW PORTIONS LATE THIS MORNING...SHIFTING S BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NW BAHAMAS AND SE FL COASTAL WATERS MON AND MON EVENING. GALE CENTER N OF BERMUDA IS GENERATING NLY SWELL THAT WILL MOVE S AND SW INTO WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND REACH NW BAHAMAS AND FL COAST BY LATE MON AFTERNOON AND N COASTS OF NE CARIB ISLANDS TUE MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SWELL SIZE AND WW3 OUTPUT TO BE USED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.