000 AGXX40 KNHC 281811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 211 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL THROUGH SAT...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SUN AND MON. MODERATE SE TO S FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND TROUGHING ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX AREA THIS MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS FEATURE MOVING LITTLE AND GRADUALLY FILLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS IS KEEPING A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE FAR SW GULF FRI THEN WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMEPECHE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKING AHEAD FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE 28/12 UTC GFS RUN IS BULLISH REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SUNDAY. EARLIER GUIDANCE INCLUDING ECMWF AND THE RESPECTIVE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW AN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THAT TIME...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE GFS UPPER AIR SOLUTION IN TURN ALLOWS FOR LOWER SURFACE PRES FORMING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS YUCATAN INTO THE SW GULF BY LATE SUNDAY...JUST AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS A RESULT...IT SHOWS STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF FOR THAT TIME. OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERS THE GFS SOLUTION BY BLENDING ECMWF FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH ADJUSTMENTS IN GULF OF HONDURAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING NORTH OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO THE SOUTH OF CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE MAINTAINING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE UKMET ARE SHOWING LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GIVEN THE BROAD AGREEMENT THAT LOWER SURFACE PRES IS PLAUSIBLE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FROM THE RAW GFS OUTPUT. SIMILARLY SEAS WILL BE A FOOT OR TWO LOWER THAN THE 10 FT ADVERTISED IN MWW3 OUTPUT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT THAT TIME...BUT STILL UP ENOUGH TO FOR MARINERS TO TAKE NOTICE. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 35N30W WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SAT WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS EXPECTED. FRESH TRADES EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPING LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT...WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD SUN AS A TRAILING FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF 30N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.