000 AGXX40 KNHC 240615 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF DOMINATES THE REGION WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE NE TO N CENTRAL GULF AND SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE W GULF. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION REMAINS COMPROMISED BY A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS PASSING N OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE HANDLING OF THIS RIDGING BY THE MODELS. GFS SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHOICE. STRONGER SOLUTION ALONG THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA COMPARES BETTER TO OBSERVATIONS. ASCAT PASS AT 0300 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 25 KT IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 51W WILL MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SOUTH OF 12N THROUGH EARLY SUN...PASSING W-NW THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON INTO TUE. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A MASSIVE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 35N30W WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THEIR HANDLING OF THE RIDGING OVER THE SW N ATLC. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH SUN. THEIR RESPECTIVE WAVE MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BIG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS NO TROUBLE INTO NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.