000 AGXX40 KNHC 211758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 158 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. EARLIER FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE NE TO N CENTRAL GULF AND SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE W GULF. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO THE GFS SEEMS AS GOOD A SOLUTION AS ANY. NWPS RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN THE MWW3 IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG RETURN FLOW IN THE W GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD. BLENDED WITH THE NWPS AND MWW3 TO BEEF UP SEAS HERE IN THE LONG FETCH AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE SE COAST OF CUBA SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE USUAL EXCEPTION ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES TO THE N REMAINS COMPROMISED BY A SERIES OF TROUGHS PASSING N OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STAYS FIXED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE HANDLING OF THIS RIDGING BY THE MODELS...THE GFS SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHOICE AS ITS STRONGER SOLUTION ALONG THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA GENERALLY COMPARES BETTER TO OBSERVATIONS. ABIDING BY THE GFS FORECAST...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A WEAK TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST WILL MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SOUTH OF 12N SAT INTO SUN...PASSING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH FRI WITH ECMWF ADDED SAT AND SUN. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS THROUGH FRI WITH EC WAVE ADDED SAT AND SUN. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THEIR HANDLING OF THE RIDGING OVER THE SW N ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST WANES SLIGHTLY BY THE WEEKEND WHEN THE ECMWF CARRIES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE EASTERLY LOW PRES SYSTEM THAN THE GFS N OF THE AREA THAT WILL SEND NORTHERLY SWELL INTO NE WATERS BY SUN. THE EC WAVE IS RUNNING 1-2 FEET HIGHER WITH SEAS THERE AT THAT TIME. A COMPROMISE OF THEIR SOLUTIONS SEEMS IN ORDER FOR NOW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.