000 AGXX40 KNHC 110600 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS THROUGH SAT THEN GFS-ECMWF BLEND HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM NE FLORIDA TO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO SUPPORTS BROAD SCALE GENTLE-MODERATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN REBUILD ACROSS SE U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF SUN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NW GULF. ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. DIGGING INTO NW GULF WHILE GFS HAS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS WITH LESS ENERGY DIGGING INTO BASIN. GFS ALSO SHOWS BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS TUE AS N PORTION OF FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS WHILE ECMWF BRINGS STRONG NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT ZONE WITH LARGER AREA OF GALES NW AND W PORTIONS. WE CONTINUE TO BLEND 50-50 THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNTIL BEST SOLUTION BECOMES MORE APPARENT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NW IN NW CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTHERN CUBA TO HONDURAS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ARE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE UNIFORM E-NE WHILE SEAS NEAR BUOY 42057 ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. ATLC RIDGE SHIFTING NE NORTH OF BASIN WILL TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT TODAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER NE TO E ACROSS BASIN. ASCAT PASS SHOWS NEAR-GALE WINDS NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODELS INDICATE NOCTURNAL MAX PULSING TO GALES EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. HIGH SHIFTS INTO N CENTRAL ATLC AND WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SUN. MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SUN THROUGH MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH ASCAT PASS SHOWING 20 KT NE WINDS THROUGH TURKS AND CAICOS INTO EASTERN CUBA. FRONT WILL DRIFT NW TODAY WHILE DISSIPATING. MODELS SUGGEST SHEAR LINE STRUCTURE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN E PORTIONS AS THIS OCCURS. FLOW ACROSS AREA WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH SAT AS ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS NE WITH MODERATE ELY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY EARLY SAT. DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN MODELS IN DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ALONG OLD FRONTAL ZONE NE OF BAHAMAS FRI-SAT...WITH ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED AND PRODUCING GRADIENT INDUCED ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N BY EARLY SUN. PREFER FLATTER WAVE DEPICTION AND LESS GRADIENT WIND THERE...USING A MODERATE BLEND OF ECMWF INTO FCST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING THROUGH SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.