000 AGXX40 KNHC 250832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 432 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND STRONG S/W DIVING SE THROUGH BASE OF DIGGING ERN U.S. TROF THIS MORNING AND AIDING IN STRONG CNVTN ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF. FRONT HAS BEEN STATIONARY PAST 6-9 HRS AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY AREA TO LOW PRES INVOF 26N88W THEN ARCHS SW TO MEXICAN COAST NEAR VERACRUZ. REINFORCING FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE APPROACHING ATLC AND INTO FL PANHANDLE AND WILL BEGIN TO FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE VERY SHORTLY. LOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEXT 12 HRS WITH ANY REMNANT ENERGY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO DEVELOPING E COAST GALE CENTER. A 03Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS JUST N OF FRONT...WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 5-6 FT...WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM LOW INTO SW CENTRAL PORTIONS. UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORCE MERGED FRONT SE TODAY AND REACH STRAITS OF FL TO N COAST OF YUCATAN TO NEAR VERACRUZ BY 00Z THIS EVENING THEN DRIFT MORE SLOWLY INTO NW CARIB OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. NO SIG CHANGES IN RECENT GUIDANCE. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT TO PRODUCE STRONG N TO NE FLOW AND BUILD SEAS 6-9 FT BY THIS EVENING AND 7-10 FT THROUGH WED EVENING. RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE WED THROUGH THU IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO GREAT PLAINS AND SHIFT HIGH SEAS 7-9 FT INTO NW PORTIONS. HAVE BLENDED ECWAVE INTO FORECAST TO RAISE SWH MORE IN LINE WITH EXPECTED WINDS...AS WW3 TOO SLOW IN WAVE GROWTH WITH THIS SCENARIO. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXPECTED FOR CARIB LLVL JET REGION WHERE RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED STRONG TRADES 20-25 KT S OF 14.5N AND BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. NO CHANGE TO RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH WEAK ATLC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT TO PREVAIL THROUGH WED EVENING BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND COLD FRONT AND ACROSS ERN U.S. BEGINS TO BUILD SE ACROSS THE REGION AND PROMOTES STRENGTHENING TRADES AGAIN. FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THIS EVENING AND SINK S INTO NW CARIB ALONG ABOUT 21Z BY 12Z WED...THEN DRIFT SE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU EVENING...WHERE IT WILL HAVE REACHED WINDWARD PASSAGE TO YUCATAN ALONG 19N. N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT WILL BUILD THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT BEHIND FRONT BY WINDS QUICKLY VEER NE THEN E ACROSS NW CARIB WED-THU AND INSUFFICIENT TO DRIVE SWELL SWD INTO W PORTIONS OF BASIN. MODERATE TRADES AND TRADE WIND SWELL TO AFFECT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE HIGH PRES SHIFTING INTO W ATLC TIGHTENS GRADIENT AND NE TRADES 15-20 KT RETURN. LARGE NW SWELL TO MOVE INTO N PORTIONS FRI. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SWH 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN WW3 ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE BLENDED ECWAVE STRONGLY WITH THIS PACKAGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS COLD FRONT DIPPING S INTO NE PORTIONS THIS MORNING E OF 70W...THEN BECOME DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING WNW TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF COAST OF CENTRAL FL. 02Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED E TO ESE WINDS 20-30 KT OCCURRING N OF WARM FRONT TO 31N...WHILE SHIP WDE4430 REPORTED SE WINDS 36 KT AT 06Z IN THIS AREA...AND LIKELY A BIT HIGH. COMPLEX SCENARIO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS LOW SHIFTS NE AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 2-3 LLVL VORTS DEVELOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...LIFTING NE AND BOMBING OUT N OF CAPE HATTERAS WED AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THU...WITH MIN PRES LESS THAN 960 MB. SE GALES EXPECTED BY 18Z ACROSS NE PORTIONS N OF LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND POSSIBLY TO S AND SW OF WARM FRONT IN SW FLOW...WITH NW GALES THEN BLASTING OFF CAROLINA AND GA COASTS BY 00Z. AS LOW BOMBS AND BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED...NW TO W GALES WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS N PORTIONS BEFORE LIFTING NE AND OUT OF AREA 00-06Z THU. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER 36 HOURS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS ECMWF SOLUTION...AS WELL AS ECWAVE OUTPUT. WIND AND WAVE GRIDS CONTINUE TO AGREE VERY WELL WITH OPC. NW SWELL BEHIND COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS WED AND THU AND REACH SE WATERS AND NE CARIB ISLAND LATE THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY VERY STRONG AND POWERFUL NLY SWELL GENERATED ON BACK SIDE OF LOW...WHICH WILL REACH SE WATERS AND NE CARIB ISLANDS EARLY FRI. HAVE IMPORTED FL COASTAL FO'S SWH GRIDS TO REFLECT GULF STREAM-SWELL INTERACTION DEPICTED WITH NWPS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO WED. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO WED. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.