000 AGXX40 KNHC 240838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 438 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED SE ACROSS W HALF OF BASIN...AND MOVED MORE DECIDEDLY E HALF...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF TAMPA BAY AREA WWD TO NEAR 27N92.5W TO BEYOND MEXICAN COAST JUST N OF TAMPICO. N TO NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT AROUND 20 KT DRIVING SEAS UP...AND ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH BUOY 42020 BRIEFLY AT 8 FT A FEW HOURS AGO AND HOLDING AT 7 FT...AND 2-3 FT ABOVE WW3. OLD BOUNDARY IN FORM OF TROF OR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SE PORTIONS ACTING AS FOCUS FOR TSTMS ATTM AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT SE THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN RECENT FORECAST REASONING WITH REINFORCING FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW GULF TONIGHT AND WILL MERGE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY AND PUSH SE...REACHING FROM NW COAST OF CUBA TO TAMPICO OVERNIGHT TUE...AND THEN DIP INTO NW CARIB AND ACROSS NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WED AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. 1030 HIGH BEHIND FRONT ACROSS GREAT PLAINS TO FORCE SUFFICIENT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT TO CREATE 20-25 KT ACROSS MOST OF BASIN BEHIND FRONT TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS MOST RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED STRONG TRADES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS TO 67W AND GENERALLY S OF 14.5N. BUOY 42058 HOLDING NEAR 8 FT ATTM. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE WHILE SELY FLOW OCCURRING THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN OVERALL CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED TRADES EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AS LOW DEVELOPS OFF NE FL COAST AND SHIFTS NE AND BEGINS TO BLOW UP. ASSOCIATED FRONT EXPECTED TOP MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO NW CARIB LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED BEFORE STALLING CENTRAL CUBA TO NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA WED AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT SHIFTING SE ACROSS WRN ATLC WILL INCREASE PRES GRADIENT BY WED NIGHT AND BRING RETURN TO 30 KT NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COLOMBIA AND FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE MODEST DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. SWELL FROM E COAST BOMB TO ENTER N PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE HAS SHIFTED E-NE PAST 24 HOURS LEAVING A SERIES OF OLD BOUNDARIES STRETCHED NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT FRONT SINKING S-SE INTO NW PORTIONS ATTM...AND ALONG ABOUT 30N AND INTO NE FL...AND APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED DAB. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL INVOF OF CAPE CANAVERAL TODAY WITH NE WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND IT ACROSS NW PORTIONS...BUILDING SEAS 8-9 FT. SFC LOW STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY TONIGHT OFF NE FL ALONG ABOUT 80W...IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING JET SEGMENT TO S OF SHARPENING AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN GUIDANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE OCCURRED PAST 24 HOURS...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST 2 TO 3 LLVL VORTS ALONG AN E-W STRETCHED DEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND DOES NOT REALLY CONGEAL AND BECOME WELL ORGANIZED UNTIL WED WHEN CENTER HAS LIFTED NE AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. STILL ATTEMPTING TO USE A CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS. OCCLUDING LOW WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE ACROSS NE PORTIONS TUE AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NE WITH LOW...AND GALES FIRST EXPECTED IN S-SE FLOW TO NE OF WARM FRONT 15-18Z AND THEN BY 00Z IN SW FLOW BEHIND WARM FRONT...WHILE AT SAME TIME NW GALES BLAST OFF CAROLINA AND GA COASTS AND INTO NW PORTIONS N OF 28-29N. WE CONTINUE TO BLEND ECWAVE INTO FORECAST WHICH IS 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN WW3 IN NW SWELL PROPAGATING INTO REGION WED-FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TUE. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TUE. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.