000 AGXX40 KNHC 251814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 114 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TERMINATES NEAR TAMPA FL WITH AN E-W TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THERE TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W TO S TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS COVER THE GULF...E-SE WINDS S OF THE TROUGH AND NE-E WINDS N OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT IN SE SWELL IN THE SW HALF OF THE GULF AND 1-3 FT IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE DENSE FOG WAS PREVELANT YET AGAIN OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF WATERS WED REACHING FROM APALACHEE BAY TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WED AFTERNOON WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT BEHIND IT BY WED EVENING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE SE REACHING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPANDING TO THE EASTERN GULF WHILE INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS BY SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND 8-11 FT SEAS ARE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND 6-9 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SHRINK EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE WED THROUGH FRI... EXPANDING SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/ OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WHERE AVAILABLE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 28N76W WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REACHING FROM 28N47W TO 26N80W. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS COVER THE BASIN... WITH NE-E WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND E-SE WINDS S OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE INSIDE THE BAHAMAS WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NE WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION BECOMES DIFFUSE. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS LATE WED INTO THU BEFORE THE LOW SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA BY LATE THU. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS ALONG 29N OR 30N LATE THU THROUGH FRI WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG IT LATE FRI INTO SAT...MOVING NE-E OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW WEAKER INDICATIONS OF THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS LOWER ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS AND THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.