000 AGXX40 KNHC 211938 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS...MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF PRECEDED BY A VERY ACTIVE SQUALL LINE. AS OF 18 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG A POSITION FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA SW TO 26N90W TO INLAND MEXICO AT 23N97W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO WELL NW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE SQUALL HAS MARKEDLY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN GULF N OF 25N E OF THE COLD FRONT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED WITH THE TSTM ACTIVITY. THE NE 25-35 KT GALE FORCE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT NOTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ARE NOW BECOMING NE TO E 20-25 KT. HIGH PLATFORM OIL RIGS ARE REPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS AS WELL...AND THOSE SPEEDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 20 KT IS PRESENT AHEAD OF FRONT/SQUALL LINE N OF 25N...WHILE LIGHTER SLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS S OF 25N E OF THE SQUALL LINE. THE 1532 UTC ASCAT HAS JUST REVEALED NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AS ADVERTISED EARLIER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BUOY 42020 E OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AT 27N97W HAS BEEN SHOWING COMBINED WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE...IN THE 8-12 FT DURING MOST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVEHEIGHT GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THESE HIGHER VALUES AS THEY WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE S OF 27N...AND 3-4 FT N OF 27N. SEAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITHIN THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST AS A N-S TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT WHILE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT DISSIPATES ALONG 26N. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10 KT SETS UP OVER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY EARLY SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT PASSING E OF THE AREA LATE MON. REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG 27N ON MON AND MON NIGHT. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP JUST W OF TAMPA BAY ON MON NIGHT AND SHIFT SE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF REACHING NEAR THE FAR EASTERN GULF LATE TUE NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S...YET A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS REACHING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO SE TEXAS AROUND SUNRISE ON WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS...LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ONGOING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON SUN...THEN PULSE AGAIN TO 30 KT LATE SUN NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT WITH MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED E OF 68W AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. NE SWELL IS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT ON SUN AND LESS THAN 8 FT SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE FROM BERMUDA SW TO WEST PALM BEACH WILL SHIFT ESE THROUGH SAT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL EMERGE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING...AND STALL FROM NEAR 31N72W TO NE FL TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXIO WILL MOVE NE TO ACROSS NE FL BY LATE MON...AND OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ON MON...AND TO JUST N OF THE NW WATER BY EARLY TUE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. NUMEROUS TSTMS MOVING ESE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE PRECEDING THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NW WATERS INTO EARLY SAT...BEFORE WEAKENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD SAT THROUGH SUN PUSHING REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO N OF 31N. A REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH THE FRONT S AGAIN AND BACK INTO THE NW WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON MON EVENING. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ON TUE REACHING FROM NEAR 31N57W TO 28N65W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO 28N73W...AND A WARM FRONT TO NEAR 31N80W. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS W OF 55W WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE ON TUE NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.