000 AGXX40 KNHC 010753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT...ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ON THE 01/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP...EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FL TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 22N86W. RECENT ASCAT PASS CLEARLY SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE E GULF AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...PARTICULARLY W OF 94W. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN THAT AREA. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE W GULF WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF TEXAS LATE SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MOBILE AL TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NW AND MOVE INLAND ON TUE. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AGAIN THE ENTIRE GULF REGION TUE WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY WED...QUICKLY REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB LOCATED NEAR 32N38W EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG 31N-32N TO 74W EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES IN THE EASTERN AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHING MINIMAL GALES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SEAS OF 12-14 FT IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 1500 UTC. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TO THE COASTS OF NW VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT N OF 15N AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT S OF 15N. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB LOCATED NEAR 32N38W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION. A STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTING NW ACROSS THE NW WATERS EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NW AND INLAND ACROSS SE U.S. LATER TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. A BELT OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IS NOTED S OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY S OF 22N WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 10-11 FT IN NE SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS N OF 26N...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS S OF 26N. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE WED INTO THU. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE N WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.