000 AGXX40 KNHC 280724 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 224 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR FORECAST WINDS AND THE EC WAVE FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BLANKET THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. BY 0300 UTC...BUOY 42020 WAS ALREADY REPORTING 8 FT...APPROXIMATELY 3-4 FT HIGHER THAN THE MWW3. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS MWW3-BASED FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR KNOWN BIAS TOWARD SLOW RAMPING UP OF SEAS...A PROBLEM THAT IS EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE IN THE NWPS WHICH IS 2-3 FT LOWER THAN THE MWW3 INITIALLY IN THE NW GULF. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MEXICO TUE AND PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SLOWER TO PHASE THIS ENERGY THAN THE GFS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT ON A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BLENDING THE ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...EXTENDING FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z WED IN THE W CENTRAL AND SW GULF OF MEXICO. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN. MWW3/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE FEATURE OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST N OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND EARLY THU. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SCENARIO THAT DISSIPATES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH FRI...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FRI AND SAT MORNINGS. THE STRONGER GFS TYPICALLY CAPTURES THE CONDITIONS HERE BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. ITS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE BOTH HERE AND WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG ATLC TRADE WINDS BLEEDING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH THU. FOR WAVES...THE MWW3/NWPS SEEMS REASONABLE IN MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...STRONG TRADE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NE OF THE AREA BEGAN TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGING. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS LOW AND GENERALLY WEAKER WITH THE TRADES IN THE ATLC THAN THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW HERE...SO A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED GFS AND THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS BLEND IS ALSO PREFERRED WITH THE PATTERN TO THE N WHICH IS GENERATING SOME OF THE SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION. NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SEAS OVER 8 FT THROUGH THU...WITH SEAS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE FRI. THE EC WAVE WAS THROWN INTO THE MIX TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE THINKING FOR WINDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPSTREAM PATTERN INCLUDING THE UPPER LOW PASSING THROUGH MEXICO TUE/WED. THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF THE BAHAMAS TUE AND CARRY IT OFF TO THE NE...BUT HOLD THE COLD FRONT BACK AND THE MAIN ENERGY LAGS TO THE W. THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING N OF THE BAHAMAS THU AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES E. A BLEND OF THE ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION SHOULD HELP TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS IS FASTER TO BUILD HIGH PRES OVER NW WATERS BEHIND THIS TROUGHING LATE THU INTO FRI THAN THE ECMWF. IT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BY THAT TIME. THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD AND THE EC WAVE WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE FIELD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.