000 AGXX40 KNHC 220719 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 219 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LOW-MED CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT OVER THE SE WATERS WILL MOVE S OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND S-CENTRAL WATERS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATER TODAY AS SE RETURN FLOW 10-15 KT SETS UP OVER THE NW WATERS...THEN BRIEFLY INCREASES TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO 10-15 KT EARLY THU MORNING. A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE...DEPICTED AS AN E-W ORIENTATED COLD FRONT ON THE MARINE GRAPHICS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THU AFTERNOON WITH ENE WINDS IMMEDIATELY INCREASING TO 20- 25 KT NW OF THE FRONT. THE GRADIENT RAPIDLY INCREASES LATE THU AS THE FRONT RACES S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW ZONE LATE THU. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT S ACROSS THE W- CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL BE A SUB-GALE EVENT WHILE THE NAM AND CMC ARE SUGGESTING A MINIMAL GALE EVENT. THE PREVIOUSLY AGGRESSIVE GFS HAS TONED DOWN TO ONLY A MINIMAL GALE EVENT. USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE A COMPROMISE...RESULTING IN ONLY A SMALL AREA OF GALE WINDS OVER THE W-CENTRAL WATERS LATE THU NIGHT...AND SUB- GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE SW WATERS ON FRI. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH AREA COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE GALE CONDITIONS IN FUTURE PACKAGES. USING THIS MODEL BLEND RESULTS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED TROUGH DEVELOPING DURING THE GALE EVENT FROM SE TX TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 23N95W ON FRI NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE ON SAT AND GET PICKED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS LATE SAT. THIS LATE WEEK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN WATERS ON SAT NIGHT. SOME REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH WILL STILL HANG UP ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH SUN. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN WATERS ON SUN NIGHT AND FINALLY DRAG REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH E AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY COMPLICATED SITUATION...THUS THE LOW-MED CONFIDENCE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. NE 20-25 KT PULSES WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WILL BE AT 25-30 KT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING... AND LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA LATE WED. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF AND SUGGESTS THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAX AT 20 KT BEHIND THIS FRONT. THESE NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE WINDS SHOULD CLOCK TO E AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT SEAS 6-8 FT SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS ON THU-SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO E CUBA...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO SE FL. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA VERIFIED THE GALE WARNING NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXPIRE BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERRUN THE FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE E REACHING A POSITION EARLY THU FROM 31N57W TO 28N61W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO HAITI. THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER E ON THU WHILE THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT DRIFTS W AND WEAKENS. A NORTHERLY SURGE...DEPICTED ON THE MARINE GRAPHICS AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI LATE FRI MERGING WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF THEN WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N ON FRI WHILE N-NE 15-20 KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH NE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.