000 AGXX40 KNHC 080620 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN MEDIUM. 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF COAST STATES NEAR BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS ARE 8-12 FT OVER THIS SAME AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL W OF 94W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT ACROSS THE NW GULF...AND 7 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL SE OF THERE. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ENE INTO THE N ATLC WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS FROM AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT (WED NIGHT). RETURN FLOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. AN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN PREVAIL N OF THE AREA MAINTAINING THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKS END. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD SAT ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER LATE FRI NIGHT... CONTINUING EASTWARD AND EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SAT NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ATTACHED TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE N CENTRAL NE GULF COAST...WINDS MAY BE FRESH TO STRONG BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT THERE. ALSO...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ARE PRESENT WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND RETURN FLOW THEN SETS UP BY LATE SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N79W TO 16N86W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE 8-14 FT RANGE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HIGHEST JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 17N. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... AND IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IN NE SWELL. THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DECREASING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS UPCOMING EVENING. MEANWHILE A CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK WESTWARD N OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND STRENGTHEN TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU...AND PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. STRONG TRADES WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 9-12 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 13N/14N FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 8-11 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS BASIN WIDE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AT THE ATLC RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WEAKENS AND RETREATS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN MEDIUM. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W TO 27N70W THEN IS STATIONARY TO 22N77W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 27N WEST OF THE FRONT...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-11 FT N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS ARE E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL COMPLETE STALL DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION DIMINISHING. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT. THE REMNANT BOUNDARY OF A COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF A SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO DROP S OF 31N FRI... STRETCHING FROM NEAR 26N60W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATES BY SAT MORNING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W THROUGH THE DAY SAT...LIKELY MOVING E OF FL/GA ON SUN. DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.