000 AGXX40 KNHC 070711 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 211 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014 CORRECTED FOR WFO WARNINGS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT RACED ACROSS THE GULF YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED SE OF THE BASIN. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED 30-35 KT WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL AND SE GULF...EXCEPT UP TO 40 KT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO REPORTING 30-40 KT. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED 10-17 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WITH BUOYS AND SHIPS ALSO 13-20 FT...HIGHEST SE GULF AND NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z FOR GMZ019-021-025... WITH A GALE WARNING ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WFO KEY WEST AND WFO MIAMI GULF COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF WITH WINDS NOW MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE NW GULF...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY EARLY WED MORNING DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY THIS TIME WED NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH ACCOMPANYING THIS HISTORICAL COLD AIR OUTBREAK SLIDES E TO OVER THE CAROLINAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE FLOW AND 4-6 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 90W WED THROUGH FRI...WITH NE-E MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS E OF 90W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF LATE FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE HIGH RETREATING TO THE ATLC WATERS. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON REACHING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO E CENTRAL MEXICO BY SAT EVENING. CURRENTLY ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO 18N86W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N86.5W. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B PASSES SHOWED 30-40 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY 8-16 FT...HIGHEST NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AMZ011-013-017 UNTIL 18Z. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 21N78W TO 18N84W TO 16N86W BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE FROM NEAR 21N78W TO 18N82W TO 16N85.5W BY THIS TIME TONIGHT (TUE NIGHT). ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS REPORTED BY BUOYS AND SHIPS IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 5-8 FT SEAS E OF 75W AND 3-5 FT W OF 75W AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK N OF THE AREA BY WED AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ONCE AGAIN INCREASE COVERAGE OF STRONG TRADES...SPREADING TO COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY WEEKS END...CONTINUING THROUGH SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 9-12 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 13N/14N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 8-11 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N71W TO 27N74W TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 23N80W. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B DATA SHOWERS GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF 76W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AMZ111-113 ZONES UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD...GRADUALLY STALLING WHILE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N62W TO 29N65W TO 27N68W TO 21N77W BY THIS TIME TONIGHT (TUE NIGHT). FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT ON WED...STRETCHING FROM 31N59W TO 29N65W TO 28N70W TO 25N80W BY LATE WED NIGHT. A BAND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS WILL LIFT N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS SE OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE S OF 22N E OF 70W ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE-S WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THU NIGHT. BY FRI...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF A SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO DROP S OF 31N FRI...STRETCHING FROM NEAR 26N60W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BE N OF THE SHEAR LINE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS BASIN WIDE BY LATE SAT AS THE SHEAR LINE WASHES OUT WITH STRONG CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GMZ021...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO AFTERNOON. AMZ013...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO AFTERNOON. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO AFTERNOON. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. AMZ113...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.