000
AGXX40 KNHC 301729
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 PM EST MON DEC 30 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS. SINCE THE  
ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT...AND SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 
FT...I DROPPED REFERENCE TO THIS FEATURE FROM ALL TEXT SYNOPSIS 
FOR SIMPLICITY AS THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION IN THE W GULF IS 
COMPLEX. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AT 25N95W WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 20N96W. A COLD OVER THE NW GULF WILL PUSH 
THE LOW PRES SE THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE IT TONIGHT AS THE 
COLD FRONT REACHES FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
MINIMAL GALE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE W AND NW OF THE LOW AND 
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE SW OF A 
NW-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT WILL SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE 
SW ON TUE AS THE LOW PRES BRIEFLY DISSIPATES. THE COLD FRONT 
WILL STALL ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED WITH 
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF 
WATERS. A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 24N96W ON WED...THEN 
RACE NE TO THE FL BIG BEND ON THU DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON FRI...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO NEAR 
GALE NORTHERLY WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS IN THE 
WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. 
NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE NW COAST 
OF COLOMBIA...ROUGHLY FROM 11-14N BETWEEN 72-78W THROUGH WED 
NIGHT...THEN THE ATLC RIDGE WILL RETRACT E WITH GRADIENT 
SUPPORTING NE 20-25 KT ONLY NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST ON FRI. FRESH 
TRADES WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
MODERATE/FRESH E-SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME 
SOUTHERLY...AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY THU AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN BASIN AROUND SUNSET ON THU. THE 
FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED ON FRI WITH NE 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS 
THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO SE FL WILL CONTINUE SE 
REACHING A POSITION FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA ON TUE NIGHT. 
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL CLOCK TO THE SE ON WED...BECOMING SLY 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF 
A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST LATE WED NIGHT. THE 
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN E OF FRONT ON THU...WITH SW WINDS 
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N WITHIN 240 NM 
E OF FRONT...AND PERSIST AS FRONT REACHES FROM 31N60W TO E CUBA 
LATE FRI. MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU...WILL BE 
STRONGLY REINFORCED WITH 20-30 KT VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS ON THU 
NIGHT AND FRI...THEN DIMINISHING ON SAT.  

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TUE. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. 
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.