000 AGXX40 KNHC 281735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1235 PM EST SAT DEC 28 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A MERGED TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE TO A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW AT 25N90W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING NW-N 20-30 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 26N WITHIN 240 NM W OF LOW AND ITS PARENT TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WHILE E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 25N E OF TROUGH. GUIDANCE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH SOME SUGGESTING THE LOW WILL RACE N ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MOVING INLAND THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPS A NEW LOW OF ABOUT 1011 MB OVER THE FL PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...THE ALMOST CERTAIN INLAND LOW AT SUNRISE SUN WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS ON SUN AND DRAG A DEVELOPING WEAK COLD FRONT E TO THE FL STRAITS WHERE THIS SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ON SUN NIGHT... AND DISSIPATE ON MON. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX TONIGHT SUPPORTING ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT AROUND SUNRISE ON SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST ON SUN EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING TO THE N AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND SUNRISE ON MON. THE FRONT WILL RACE SE PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON MON NIGHT. RECENT GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POST-FRONTAL FLOW AND SUGGESTS 20-30 KT ACROSS THE SW WATERS ON MON AND TUE. THE POST- FRONTAL FLOW WILL QUICKLY CLOCK TO THE E ON TUE WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS ON TUE NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS EXIST OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11- 13N BETWEEN 72-77W BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 25 KT ON SUN...BUT THEN PULSE AT 25-30 KT LATE EACH NIGHT WITH THESE CONDITION REPEATING THROUGH WED NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES OF 20-25 KT NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH/SUBSIDE ON WED. MODERATE/FRESH E-SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN BASIN AROUND SUNRISE ON SUN THEN STALLING ON SUN AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE W ON SUN NIGHT AS LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES RETURN ACROSS THE NW WATERS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE AND EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON WED WITH NE 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO 26N69W WILL CONTINUE E TODAY AND WASH OUT TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS AT 15-25 KT CURRENTLY OBSERVED N OF 27N WITHIN 360 NM W OF FRONT WILL QUICKLY CLOCK TO THE E AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT. SE RETURN FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...BECOMING S-SW EARLY SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST ON SUN AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL STALL BRIEFLY FROM 31N65W TO ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE CAY SAL BANK LATE MON. A SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE ARRIVING ON MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WILL PUSH THIS FRONT E AGAIN THROUGH BERMUDA AND THE SE BAHAMAS ON TUE NIGHT...STALLING FROM 31N60W TO 26N71W ON TUE NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.