000 AGXX40 KNHC 241718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1218 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH WED...WITH THE ECMWF BLENDED THU THROUGH SUN. PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WED THROUGH SUN. THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON PUSH SE OF THE GULF. AT 12Z IT EXTENDED FROM NEAR NAPLES FL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A VERY THIN LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS INDICATED BY FLORIDA WSR-88D RADARS WITH ANY OTHER FRONTAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING S OF 21N W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS UP TO 17 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 6-9 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS FROM THE NW GULF TO THE SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN LATE WED INTO THU TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MEANWHILE TROUGHING WILL SET UP JUST E OF MEXICO IN THE WESTERN GULF FURTHER COMPLICATING THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK IMPACTING THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS THU AFTERNOON WHEN IT STAMPS OUT ABOUT 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN 6 HOURS AND INCREASES THE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GULF RESULTING IN NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. AFRAID THE GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO BULLISH HERE. WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THE EXTENDED RANGE DETAILS...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST THU THROUGH SUN...ALTHOUGH EVEN THE GFS HAS WINDS DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUN AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND DUE TO SURFACE TROUGHING WHICH IS AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN WHILE INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. A SMALL AREA OF REMNANT 8-9 FT SEAS IN NE-E SWELL GENERATED BY TRADES YESTERDAY AND THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A STRIP OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS 8-10 FT SEAS BEHIND IT. IT WILL THEN STALL ALONG 20N BY WED...GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO THE NW AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE E. THAT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPREADING WESTWARD ON WED AND THU. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL MANAGE TO BUILD BACK IN JUST N OF THE AREA FRI THROUGH SUN...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN TRADE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WILL BE BACK UP TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI THROUGH SAT...THEN BUILDING TO 10-11 FT BY SUN. THE GFS FORECAST SOLUTION CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE HERE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE SURFACE TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE IS ALSO PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG PRIMARILY N OF 19N WITH 8-11 FT SEAS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS WILL COVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TUE INTO WED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGHING WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS WITH THE ECMWF ADDED WED THROUGH SAT. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH EC WAVE ADDED WED THROUGH SUN. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WED THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 28N81W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS BEHIND IT. A VERY NARROW STRIP OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGHING IS NOW MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH PLENTIFUL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SPREADING INTO THE SE WATERS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 31N67W TO 27N74W TO 23N81W WED MORNING BEFORE INTERACTING WITH THE TROUGHING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FRONTS FORWARD PROGRESS. CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS FORECAST CONTINUES TO WANE A BIT WED THROUGH SUN AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO CARRY A SLOWER AND WEAKER SYSTEM THROUGH THE N ATLC THAT IMPACTS THE SWELL OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE WEEK THAN ALL OF THE OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF AND EC WAVE WERE BROUGHT INTO THE FORECAST BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING THROUGH 00Z WED. GMZ025...GALE WARNING THROUGH 00Z WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.