000 AGXX40 KNHC 221849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 149 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE NW GULF HAS STALLED FROM 30N90W TO 26N93W TO 23N98W. LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE-S WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT...4-7 FT ELSEWHERE. A BAND OF SCATTERED TSTMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS N OF 28N...ALTHOUGH HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO AMZ111 AND AMZ113. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH BEFORE A REINFORCING FRONT AND SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS MEETS IT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH REACH FROM 30N88W TO 27N91W TO 22N96W TO 21N98W LATE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MORE BY MON AS IT EXTENDS FROM 30N85W TO 24N90W TO 20N95W TO 18N95W...THEN FROM 27N82W TO 22N89W TO 18N93W TUE MORNING...PUSHING SE OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF (GMZ023) COMMENCING AT 12Z MON MORNING...WITH 30-35 KT STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TUE AND THUS THE GALE WARNING WILL BE STRETCHED SLIGHTLY TO NOW END AT 18Z TUE. THE GFS HAS SHOWN PEAK WIND SPEEDS OF 40 KT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 30-40 KT WITH THE WARNING. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH GALE FORCE WINDS INTO GMZ025 BY 06Z TUE... CONTINUING TO 18Z. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN ZONE GMZ023 MON EVENING AND AS HIGH AS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN ZONE GMZ25 BY TUE MORNING. THE 09Z SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES ALSO SHOW AROUND 90 PERCENT FOR GMZ023...AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT OR SO FOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF GMZ025. THE LATEST GFS WAS USED TO BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND TURNING MORE TO THE NE-E AS HIGH PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY WED. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 SEAS ARE EXPECTED LATE WED THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SNEAK INTO THE SE GULF THU WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSOLVE BY EARLY FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A GALE WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. A 1456 UTC ASCAT PASS DID SHOW SOME 30-34 KT WIND BARBS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES STILL INDICATE A SMALL SOLID ARE OF 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO MON...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY LATE MON INTO TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WEAKENS DUE TO COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION AND THE AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN WIDE TUE...WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3-6 FT. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY TUE MORNING AND STALLS IT IN THE FAR NW GULF ALONG 20N UNTIL IT RETROGRADES NORTHWARD WED AS THE MENTIONED TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE WEAKER WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THAN THE GFS ON TUE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE REGION WITH SEAS MAINLY 8-11 FT IN PRIMARILY NE SWELL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY INTO MON AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 7-9 FT SEAS AS A TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 55W MOVES FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS UNDER A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW TUE AND WED THAT WILL AMPLIFY IT AT THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS EXPECTED W OF THROUGH AXIS...AND MODERATE SE WINDS N OF 15N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TUE THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS S OF 27N AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N OF 27N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4-7 FT N OF 27N...AND 7-10 FT S OF 27N...EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MON AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS MON EVENING...REACHING FROM 31N77W TO 27N81W BY TUE MORNING... AND FROM 31N65W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 80W WED MORNING. THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS BY WED. THE TROUGHING WILL SHIFT W OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS BY THU...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT WILL BE ACROSS THE BASIN FRI...NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING MON INTO TUE. GMZ025...GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.