000 AGXX40 KNHC 210729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 229 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. S-SE WINDS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES INCREASES FROM A GENTLE BREEZE IN THE EASTERN GULF TO A STRONG BREEZE IN THE NW GULF THIS MORNING. BUOYS IN THE NW GULF SHOW SEAS TO 7 FT. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT E TODAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...BRIEFLY STALLING OUT FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO INTO SUN MORNING. A REINFORCING SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ARRIVES IN THE NW PORTION LATE SUN INTO MON. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW AGREE ON THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS AT 12Z MON MORNING...WITH THE GFS HOLDING ONTO THE GALE 6 HOURS LONGER BY ENDING IT AT 12Z TUE. 21Z SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE AS HIGH AS NEAR 90 PERCENT BY 21 UTC MON AND ARE OVER 40 PERCENT BY THE END OF ITS RUN AT 12Z TUE. THE 00Z GEFS PROBABILITIES SHOW A CHANCE OF GALES FROM 12Z MON TO 12Z TUE...JUST LIKE THE OPERATIONAL RUN...AND AS HIGH AS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES AT 00Z TUE. BLENDED THE GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH RESULTED IN GALES ONLY IN ZONE GMZ023 DESPITE THE GEFS TRYING TO SPREAD THE GALE EASTWARD INTO ZONE GMZ025. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND TURNING MORE TO THE E AS HIGH PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WARNING IS CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. THE WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z SUN AS A RESULT. THE MODELS AGREE ON A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS HERE DURING THE EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...WITH THE GFS THE ONLY MODEL TO EXPLICITLY SHOW A GALE THIS MORNING AND SUN MORNING. THE GFS IS GENERALLY THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODEL FOR THE STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA...DESPITE HAVING A SLIGHT LOW BIAS. WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING UP THROUGH SUN MORNING FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MON GIVEN THAT PREVIOUS ASCAT PASSES IN THE MORNING HOURS HAVE SHOWED 30-34 KT WINDS UNDER THE SAME SYNOPTIC PATTERN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO MON...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY LATE MON INTO TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE AREA WEAKENS DUE TO COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN WIDE TUE INTO WED...WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3-5 FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUN INTO MON S OF A SHEAR LINE DROPPING INTO THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 8-11 FT IN PRIMARILY NE SWELL. TUE INTO WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH 7-9 FT SEAS AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A BELT OF FRESH E WINDS CENTERED NEAR 26N WITH MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT S OF 23N WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 7-10 FT IN E TO SE SWELL S OF 27N (EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS)...AND 4-7 FT N OF 27N. TRADE WINDS TO THE S WILL DIMINISH MON AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE MON. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...REACHING FROM 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY TUE MORNING AND FROM 31N65W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 80W WED MORNING. THE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT TUE INTO WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SUN MORNING. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.