000
AGXX40 KNHC 181835
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EST WED DEC 18 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...MODERATE 
CONFIDENCE SUN AND MON.
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. NEAR 35N88W WILL SHIFT 
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALLOWING 
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS THE 
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL 
DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO 
REACH THE TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT...EXTEND FROM LOUISIANA TO 
CENTRAL MEXICO SUN...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN MEXICO 
SUN NIGHT...AND FROM BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
MON. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS MON 
AND MON NIGHT IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE...ZONE GMZ023. THE GFS 
HAS BEEN A LITTLE LOW ON PEAK WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO THE LAST COUPLE OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...SO A GALE WARNING 
MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR ZONE GMZ017 AS WELL. BUT A LOT CAN HAPPEN 
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES TEND TO 
FLIP-FLOP HIGH AND LOW BEFORE SETTLING ON A MEAN VALUE...SO WILL 
USE GFS FOR NOW...BUT FUDGING A BIT BY ADDING 1-2 KT TO RAW GFS 
MODEL OUTPUT IN SW GULF FOR SUN-MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 70W 
AND 80W WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON. LARGE 12-13 FT SEAS 
ASSOCIATED WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SAT AS THE HIGH PRES 
THAT INITIATED THE ENHANCED TRADE FLOW SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. 
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG ROUGHLY 
33N TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. A LATE-SEASON WAVE OR TROUGH EMBEDDED 
IN THE LOW-LATITUDE EASTERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC SUN AND WEAKEN. WINDS WILL BE LOCATED N OF THE WAVE AXIS 
BETWEEN 17N AND 22N. PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE INCREASE IN CLOUDS 
AND SHOWERS IN ZONES AMZ027 AND AMZ037 SUN THROUGH MON.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL WEAKEN AND 
BECOME ORIENTED MORE E-W BETWEEN 23N AND 28N THROUGH FRI AS HIGH 
PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS EASTWARD N OF THE AREA 
ROUGHLY ALONG 33N INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. 
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST THE NORTHERN ZONES 
AMZ113 AND AMZ115 TONIGHT AND THU WITH MINOR IMPACT OTHER THAN A 
WIND SHIFT...AND AN INCREASE IN NW SWELL TO 6-8 FT IN NE PORTION 
THU. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE 
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. S-SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP W OF 75W SAT 
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC 
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING N FLORIDA. GFS MODEL SHOWS 
A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST INTO ZONE 
AMZ111 LATE MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.