000 AGXX40 KNHC 121912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 212 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-UKMET CONSENSUS AT 15Z...A COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 15Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALONG THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST...PEMEX BUOY CS1 REPORTING NNW WINDS 14 M/S G 17 AND SEAS 2.8M AT 16Z. 1037 MB HIGH ACROSS MS VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD TODAY AND FORCING THE FRONT SE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF GULF AND SW N ATLC. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY IN THE STRAITS OF FL AND ALONG NW COAST OF CUBA AND NEAR N COAST OF YUCATAN AND BEGIN WEAKENING BY 12Z FRI. W PORTION OF FRONT ALIGNED N TO S ALONG MEXICAN COAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LEAVE WEAK TROUGHING THERE. PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS GULF TODAY N OF FRONT AND INCREASE OF WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BEFORE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRI AND WINDS VEER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO E ACROSS E HALF...WHILE RETURN FLOW SETS UP W OF 92W IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS N TEXAS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY SAT BUT SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS MS VALLEY AND SE U.S. SAT-SUN WHICH AFFECTS FRONTAL POSITION. ATTM WILL GO WITH GFS-UKMET-GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN ECMWF AND NAVGEM. THE ECMWF MODEL ALSO SHOWS THE EVENT ABOUT 5 KT WEAKER THROUGHOUT ITS DURATION. MY FORECAST BRINGS FRONT INTO NW GULF SAT AFTERNOON THEN REACHING COASTAL AL TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO BY 00Z SUN. GALES ARE LIKELY TO THEN SPILL S DOWN COAST AND INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH NEAR 12Z MON. THE EVENT PEAK SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 00Z MON WITH MAX WINDS OF 40-45 KT AND SEAS AROUND 16 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-UKMET-ECMWF BLEND. ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES WWD ALONG ABOUT 29N TO NEAR 72W THIS MORNING AND MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT GRADIENT FOR FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE-E TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF CARIB E OF 80W...AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E TO 35W. AS HIGH ACROSS U.S. BEGINS TO SHIFT E TONIGHT AND ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. BROAD AND LONG FETCH OF ENE TO E WINDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO PUMP UP WIND SWELL ACROSS CARIB...AND ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHERE LARGE AREA OF 10-12 FT SEAS WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALES 06-12Z FRI AND SAT NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUN NIGHT AS WELL. SEAS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CARIB TO BUILD 9-12 FT BY SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-UKMET-ECMWF BLEND. AT 15Z...WEAK 1020 MB LOW HAD DEVELOPED EAST OF N FLORIDA NEAR 30N76W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MODERATE E TRADES PREVAIL. E OF 75W...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUED TOWARD THE ESE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WITH WINDS OF ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT. FRESH N TO NE FLOW IS PUSHING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND NE FL TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CONFINED TO NARROW 90-120 NM ZONE N OF FRONT FRI AND HIGH SHIFTS OFF E COAST. HIGH WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY E PAST BERMUDA BY SAT AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEP INTO GULF WITH HIGH OPENING UP ACROSS SW N ATLC AND YIELDING MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S FLOW BY LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE SE INTO NW WATERS SUN. SW FLOW 20-25 KT N OF 29-30N TO SET UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SUN THROUGH MON...WITH WEAKENING FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR 30N68W TO SE FL COAST BY 12Z MON. SUPPORTING ENERGY TO LIFT OUT TO NE WITH LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF E COAST DURING THAT TIME AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT AT SFC BEHIND THIS FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING/LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.