000 AGXX40 KNHC 110832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 332 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS MODELS UNDERFORECAST YESTERDAYS GALE...WITH 15-16Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWING 35-45 KT W OF 96W AND LATER OSCAT PASS SUGGESTING BROADENING AREA OF 35-40 FT. 17Z ALTIMETER PASS JUST SE OF THIS AREA SHOWED SEAS 14-16 FT WITH ISOLATED MAX NEAR 17 FT. THUS MODELS TOO SLOW TO SPREAD FRONT AND WINDS S AND SE...AND 10M WINDS NOT GOING TO PROVIDE OPTIMUM WIND VELOCITY ACROSS WARM GULF WATERS. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO TRY TO BLEND 30M OR HIGHER WINDS INTO UPCOMING EVENTS AND THEN TONE DOWN SLIGHTLY. COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SE ACROSS ERN GULF OVERNIGHT AND INTO TAMPA AREA BUT LOOKS TO BE STALLING ATTM ACROSS OR JUST S OF TAMPA BAY EXTENDING SW TO WRN GULF WHERE N TO S PORTIONS APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WWD TO ALONG 94.5W. GLOBAL MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON FRONT STALLING TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN BEING FORCED SE THU AS 1036 MB HIGH SHIFTS INTO TN VALLEY. FRONT TO PUSH S TO ABOUT 24N ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL GULF BY 00Z FRI AND BEGIN TO WASH OUT. HIGH TO CONTINUE SHIFTING E TO CAROLINA COAST WITH FLOW ACROSS SW N ATLC AND SRN GULF GOING E LEAVING A DYING FRONT OR SHEARLINE THROUGH EXTREME S FL AND INTO SE GULF...WHILE RETURN FLOW SETS UP NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT....THEN ENCOMPASSES ENTIRE GULF BY EARLY SAT. GFS AND UKMET MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GALES BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT LATE SAT THROUGH LATE SUN WHILE ECMWF HAS ONLY A 1024 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INSUFFICIENT GRADIENT. PBL WINDS SUGGEST CHANCE FOR 40 KT GALE WITH THIS EVENT AS WELL. I HAVE INCREASED SWH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SW GULF TO REFLECT RECENT OBS AND WILL GO FASTER AND 2-3 FT ABOVE WW3 GUIDANCE FOR UPCOMING EVENT...NUDGING FORECAST FOR MAX SEAS CLOSER TO MWW_ENS MAX. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS W ATLC HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC WITH GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXING ACROSS BASIN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WITH RECENT SCAT PASSES SUGGESTING WINDS GENERALLY NOW AROUND 20 KT E OF 78W. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED INSIDE OF CARIB NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 7-10 FT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS LONG NE TO SW FETCH OF RECENT DAYS REALIGNS E TO W. FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH SE ACROSS FL AND SW N ATLC LATE THU THROUGH LATE FRI WITH NEW HIGH EMERGING OFF OF E COAST AND WILL RESTRENGTHEN GRADIENT ACROSS WATERS AND BRING SEAS UP A FEW FEET BASIN WIDE. ALSO BEGINNING FRI NIGHT...THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT LIKELY TO FORCE NOCTURNAL MAX OFF OF COLOMBIA TO SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF NOCTURNAL GALES THERE SAT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS W ATLC HIGH SHIFTING GRADUALLY NE AND ALLOWING GRADIENT TO SLOWLY RELAX ACROSS REGION...WITH RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWING WINDS W OF 22N HAVE DIMINISHING TO NEAR 20 KT...WHILE SEAS THERE REMAIN 8-10 FT E OF 72W. FRONT HAS SHIFTED SE OFF NE FL COAST AND SOLID 25 KT OF NW FLOW OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS...WITH NLY WINDS SPREADING S INTO NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT...NOW FROM 30N75W TO NEAR VERO BEACH. A WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FRONT FROM FL PENINSULA TO 75W...AND LIFT NWD BEFORE BEING FORCED SE AGAIN THU AS HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS TN VALLEY AND TOWARDS E COAST. FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR 26.5N65W TO EXTREME S FL BY 00Z SAT AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRES OPENS UP ACROSS GOM. NE WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THU EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE FRONT LAYS DOWN MORE ENE TO WSW AND FRESH FLOW BECOME CONFINED TO NARROW ZONE ABOUT 90-120 NM N OF FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VEERING FLOW TO THEN DOMINATE REGION LATE FRI AND SAT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT GOM COLD FRONT WITH FRONT MOVING WEAKLY INTO NW WATERS SUN MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.