000 AGXX40 KNHC 081741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1241 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS WAVE PARAMETERS. THE W-ATLC RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING AND BUILDING W ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THUS A WARM FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO 26N94W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING AND STALLING FROM THE MS DELTA TO EXTREME NE MEXICO EARLY MON MORNING. GUIDANCE IS NO LONGER SUGGESTING A FRONTAL WAVE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...AND THERE IS CURRENTLY NO EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND FOG...THAT COVERS THE GULF WATERS TO THE W AND NW OF THE SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW GULF BY MON AFTERNOON...ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF THE THEN STALLED FRONT...WITH THE MERGED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE MOVES THIS COLD FRONT FURTHER S THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...WITH THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FL THROUGH A FRONTAL WAVE AT 25N93W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED. BUILDING HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT ON WED NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT S FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THU. REMNANTS OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE TX TO THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI. THE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE WARM FRONT IS AT 10-15 KT WITH E-SE 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW SE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT E 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS FL STRAITS TO THE E OF 83W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN THE NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT EARLY MON TO THE NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...FURTHER INCREASING TO 15-25 KT W OF THE MERGED FRONT ON MON NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH N-NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY LATE WED. GUIDANCE INCREASES THE GRADIENT AGAIN WED NIGHT SUPPORTING NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE S OF 26N W OF 94W BRIEFLY ON THU. EXPECT NW WINDS AT 10-15 KT W OF THE TROUGH ON FRI...AND E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS EVERYWHERE E OF THE TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS WAVE PARAMETERS. A BROAD DISSIPATING SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEAR LINE EXTENDS E- W ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 15-19N TO THE E OF 71W. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS SHIFTED SW TO NEAR 15N65W...AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE PRECIP OVER ITS NE QUADRANT ALONG THE DECAYING FRONT. THE ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS BUILDING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...AND WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF NE-E TRADES AT 20-30 KT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE SW CARIBBEAN... ROUGHLY FROM 20N60W TO 11N81W...AS WELL AS A BELT OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS BLEEDING WSW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUE BUT STILL SUPPORT NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE AREA TO THE E OF 80W ON THU-FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS WAVE PARAMETERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST S OF BERMUDA IS RIDGING E AND W ALONG 30N. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT NE TONIGHT AND PASS NE THROUGH 31N52W ON TUE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL FL. EASTERLY TRADES TO THE S OF 25N WILL CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E ON TUE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE NW ATLC WATERS WITH A LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 31N76W AND JUST BRUSHING ALONG 31N WED EVENING BEFORE ACCELERATING OFF TO THE NE LATE WED NIGHT INTO ON THU. THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS THE LOW LIFTS NE ON WED NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM 31N57W TO CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.