000
AGXX40 KNHC 080812
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
312 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS
 
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA TO 26N95W TO
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18.5N93W...WITH RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWING FRESH NLY FLOW CONTINUING TO SPILL SWD BEHIND FRONT AND
DOWN MEXICAN COAST. GALE THERE ENDED AT 06Z...WITH GFS NOT
CATCHING THIS AND ECMWF SHOWING STRONGER WINDS YDA. FRONT
BEGINNING TO DRIFT NW ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS AND
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR MSY TO FAR WRN GULF BY 00Z THIS
EVENING THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SE BY 00Z TUE...REACHING FROM
FAR WRN PANHANDLE TO NEAR 27N96W TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST...WITH NEW
HIGH BUILDING ACROSS TEXAS AND SE ACROSS GULF COAST STATES
TUE...PUSHING FRONT FROM BIG BEND TO TUXPAN MEXICO...WITH 25-30 KT
OF NLY WIND SPILLING DOWN MEXICAN COAST BEHIND FRONT...WHICH IS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF. SEAS BUILDING 7-10 FT PER ECMWF WINDS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

SHEAR LINE HAS CONTINUED TO SINK VERY SLOWLY S ACROSS ERN CARIB
AND LESSER ANTILLES...NOW EXTENDING ACROSS TOPICAL N ATLC WATERS
ALONG ABOUT 16N AND INTO E CARIB JUST S OF GUADALOUPE WHERE IT
CONTINUES ILL DEFINED TO JUST N OF BUOY 42059. WITH 1028 MB HIGH
DUE N OF AREA AND ALONG ABOUT 30N...GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT N OF
THE BOUNDARY AND INTO CENTRAL CARIB...WITH RECENT SCAT PASSES
SHOWING BROAD ZONE OF ENE WINDS 20-25 KT BETWEEN 53W AND
71-72W...WITH AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS SPREADING ACROSS NRN
LEEWARDS AND ADJACENT TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...WHERE A RECENT
ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED 10-13 FT E OF LEEWARDS. DOWNSTREAM WIND SEA
AFFECTING CARIB WATERS N OF 16N WHERE SEAS LIKELY 8-9 FT S OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GRADIENT ALSO RESULTING IN FRESH TRADES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WITH 30 KT LIKELY TO BE OCCURRING ATTM OFF
COAST OF COLOMBIA IN NOCTURNAL MAX...WHILE GFS SUGGEST WINDS TO 30
KT OFFSHORE OF BARAHONA DOM REP...NOW THROUGH MON...WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALES SUGGESTED THERE TOMORROW NIGHT. SHEAR LINE TO
SINK SLOWLY SSE ACROSS E CARIB AND LESSER ANTILLES...REACHING
TRINIDAD BY 48 HRS...WITH TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
STRONG ENE WINDS ACROSS NE AND CENTRAL CARIB THROUGH EARLY WED
BEFORE RIDGE ALONG 30N WEAKENS ENOUGH AND HIGH SHIFT E INTO
CENTRAL ATLC FOR MODEST RELAXING OF GRADIENT...AND TRADES
RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL 17-25 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN E OF
80W. WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY TO PEAK LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHEST SEAS N OF 15N BETWEEN MONA PSG AND WATERS S OF
JAMAICA...REACHING MAX OF 12-15 FT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURRING UNDER UPPER LOW ACROSS NE CARIB WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT NW AND W TODAY THROUGH MON AS LOW CUTS OFF AND
SHIFTS W...SPREADING WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY AND INTO
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND MON.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

1027 MB HIGH JUST SE OF BERMUDA MAINTAINING RIDGE ACROSS REGIONAL
WATERS AND FRESH ENE WINDS N OF SHEAR LINE AFFECTING ATLC WATERS
OF NE CARIB ISLANDS NWD TO ALMOST 24N AND W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS VEERING
VERY SLIGHTLY...AND FRESH E WINDS SPREADING W INTO SE HALF OF
BAHAMAS MON BEFORE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUE AND WINDS
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT S OF 22N. OTHERWISE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND RIDGE TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MODELS NOW BRINGING
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO FAR NW PORTIONS WED MORNING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.