000 AGXX40 KNHC 061832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 132 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL/PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. MWW3/ECMWF BLEND FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN FROM JUST NE-E OF BERMUDA SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE SE TO S FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN E OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N98W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS ARE REPORTED BY BUOYS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 3-5 FT SEAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 29N90W TO 26N93W TO 21N98W THIS EVENING...THEN FROM 30N86W TO 26N91W TO 22N95W TO 19N96W BY SAT MORNING WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC STOPS ANY MORE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT SAT. AN ISOLATED BRIEF WIND GUST TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 7-10 FT. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF MON EVENING...REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W THROUGH 26N94W TO MEXICO NEAR 21N98W TUE MORNING...THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO 18N94W WED MORNING. 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE UP TO 40-50% FOR GMZ017 AND SLIGHTLY LESS INTO GMZ023 AND GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ARE HIGHLIGHTED FOR THESE TWO ZONES TUE MORNING/AFTERNOON (GMZ017) THROUGH TUE NIGHT (GMZ023). SREF 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES DO NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME YET FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL/PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED LOW ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...AND CREATING SUBSIDENCE W THROUGH SW OF PUERTO RICO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SHEAR LINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SINKS TO THE SE-S. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS A 1029 MB HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY DUE N OF THE AREA TO YIELD THESE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. OTHERWISE A BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH SEAS 6-9 FT MOST LOCATIONS AND 9-11 FT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REORGANIZE JUST SW OF BERMUDA LATE SUN AND MON AND ALLOW WINDS TO VEER MORE EASTERLY...QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS ACROSS N AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS INTO 8-12 FT RANGE...WITH NE WIND SWELL BLEEDING THROUGH NE CARIB/ATLC PASSAGES BEGINNING SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE INTO WED AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL/PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. MWW3/ECMWF BLEND FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NE-E OF BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW INTO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND YIELDING A 390 NM WIDE ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE NW OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN IN AMZ127 WHERE SEAS AREA BUILDING 8-11 FT. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH SEAS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH WW3. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SINK S-SE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DIMINISHING INTO A SHEAR LINE...WITH STRONG NE-E FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT. THESE SEAS WILL IMPACT THE N COASTS OF THE ISLANDS...SPREADING INTO CARIB/ATLC PASSAGES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER AMZ111 LATE TUE NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WED AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.