000
AGXX40 KNHC 051816
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
116 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL/PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM WESTERN ATLC HIGH PRES.
MAINLY MODERATE SE-S RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHERE IT
WILL TEMPORARILY STALL...FINALLY CLEARING GMZ011 FRI NIGHT WITH
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT. IT
WILL THEN STALL AGAIN SAT MORNING AS FROM 30.5N86W TO 26N93W TO
22N96W TO 21N97W. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO N OF 22N LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT (UP TO 30 KT) AND AN
ISOLATED GUST TO GALE FORCE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT THIS
POINT. ATLC HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK FROM THE E THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE FRONT OR THE REMNANTS THERE
OF CONFINED TO THE NW GULF. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW WATERS LATE MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE W CENTRAL AND SW
GULF BY TUE. MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...MODERATE RETURN FLOW
AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 65W... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL/PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AMZ023 WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN ITS VICINITY. THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT SHEAR LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE SAGGING TO THE SE-S. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND IT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC
THIS WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE A MAINLY BROAD PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS. THE EXCEPTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS TO THE S OF HAITI DUE TO A
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER THOSE AREAS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE-E
WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT OCCURRING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE
S-SW THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
INCREASE TRADE WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SOLID FETCH OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 12-13 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY MON MORNING. MEANWHILE LONGER PERIOD NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...PROPAGATING TO THE S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL/PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SW
TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODERATE E-SE WINDS COVER THE WATERS N OF
27N WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS S OF 27N. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT
OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. A FRONTAL
TROUGH IS DRAPPED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS AMZ127 WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN ITS VICINITY. OTHERWISE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN UNDER THE
RIDGING. THE TROUGH WILL DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE SLIDING TO THE S AS THE ATLC HIGH STRENGTHENS AND
BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS MAINLY THE
WATERS S OF 27N AS THIS OCCURS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH TO
STRONG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI OVER THE SE PORTION...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM N TO S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS BECOME CONFINED TO S OF 23N/24N BY MON). SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 8-11 FT BY FRI ACROSS THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER/AMZ111 BY LATE TUE.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.