000 AGXX40 KNHC 020755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EST MON DEC 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 3...GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 4 AND 5. MWW3 GUIDANCE USED FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5 FAR W GULF. THE LATEST ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH WIND DIRECTIONS OF NW-N IN THE NE GULF SECTION...NE-E IN THE SE GULF SECTION...E-SE IN THE SW SECTION AND S-SW IN THE NW SECTION. WINDS ARE LIGHTER IN THE SW SECTION. THE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS OF 1-2 FT N OF 28N...2-3 FT FROM 26N TO 28N...AND 3- 4 FT S OF 26N EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT IN ZONE 25. THE 1019 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE TO THE EASTERN GULF BY BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY WELL W OF THE GULF OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES TO BECOME SLY THROUGH THU...WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF. THE SLY FLOW WILL CONSIST OF WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS IN THE NW GULF. THIS SHOULD LIKELY AGAIN RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH LATE THU. THE NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR NOW WITH THE FASTER MOTION OF THIS NEXT FRONT INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY THU EVENING...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DEPICT THE FRONT OVER EASTERN TEXAS AT THAT TIME. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN WITH CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH COLD FRONT TIMING INTO THE NW GULF LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THIS TIMING IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE IN SPEEDS AS FRONT NEARS THE NW GULF. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE TO MODERATE...BUT THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE FRI AS A MASS OF COLD AIR SURGES SWD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 0058 UTC AND 0238 UTC LAST NIGHT DEPICTED MOSTLY GENTLE NE-E WINDS UNDER A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW PORTION ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A SMALL AREA OF TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR NE 15-20 KT WINDS THERE. THESE ASCAT PASSES MATCH VERY WELL WITH THE LATEST AND CURRENT REPORTS FROM BUOYS FOUND THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES WHERE HIGHER SEAS OF 6-7 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS...AND IN THE SW SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE PRESENT. WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRES PATTERN REMAINING N OF THE AREA OVER ATLC BASIN INTO EARLY WED...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS AS NOTED ABOVE. BY LATE WED AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY THU...AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING AND THROUGH FRI. NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL MATERIALIZE JUST TO THE S AND SW OF HISPANIOLA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THESE INCREASES IN WIND...THE SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI. THE NE SWELLS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING N TO S ALONG 79W N OF 27N...AND SW FROM THERE TO JUST ALONG THE SE FL COAST. A TROUGH...SUPPORTED BY BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ROUGHLY ALONG 67W...EXTENDS FROM 31N65W SSW TO 24N67W AND TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS PRIMARILY DUE TO NE SWELLS...AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO SWING OFF THE EASTERN U.S SEABOARD TODAY INTO TUE. THIS EWD PUSH ALOFT SHOULD ENERGIZE THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO JUST E OF SE FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR 31N62W TO 24N67W AND WEAKENING TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY TUE EVENING...THEN WEAKENING OVER THE FAR SE WATERS BY LATE WED. RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES N OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONNECTED TO THE SURFACE FRONT WILL TRACK NE THROUGH TUE...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT IN DEVELOPING STRONG S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MODERATE TO STRONG W WINDS BEHIND IT...ALL EXPECTED TO BE N OF ABOUT 28N LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 8 FT. BY TUE EVENING...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS RETURN TO THOSE WATERS AFFECTED BY THE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS THERE LOWERING TO 5-6 FT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES ALONG 31N. BY FRI...THE HIGH PRES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EWD TO JUST NE OF THE FORECAST WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR MODERATE E WINDS S OF ABOUT 26N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS INDUCING SEAS OF 5-7 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.