000
AGXX40 KNHC 300801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
301 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3/NWPS FOR SEAS
HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 03 UTC INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SE GULF FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE STRONG WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS N OF THE AREA KEEPING THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES E OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES IS
MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS COVER THE REST OF THE GULF.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUN THROUGH MON.
THIS WILL INITIATE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE N CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF LATE MON INTO TUE...TO THE EAST OF WEAK HIGH PRES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE LIGHT PRES PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
INTO MID WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY SET UP
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF TUE INTO WED AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE NW GULF WILL ALSO ALLOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY SEA FOG BY MID WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM
07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH
MWW3/NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BUOY...SHIP...AND SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NE FLOW PERSIST OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING
W OF A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND OFF COLOMBIA AND 6 TO 8 FT IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA STARTS TO
WEAKEN. THIS WILL START SEVERAL DAYS OF RELATIVELY LOW WINDS AND
SEAS ACROSS THE AREA. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODELS.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH MWW3 FOR SEAS.

STATIONRY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 20N69W THEN SHEAR LINE TO W
CENTRAL CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PERSIST ALONG AND W OF THE
FRONT/SHEAR LINE...ENHANCED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ALSO PROMOTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SHEAR LINE. SEAS REMAIN 8 TO 10 FT IN THE
WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS IN PART DUE TO NE SWELL. THE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW
AND SLIGHT SEAS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES SUN THROUGH MON...WITH A MID/UPPER MOVING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE ATLC WATERS MON INTO TUE. LOW
PRES FORMS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND LIFTS NE...PROVIDING FRESH TO
STRONG W WINDS N OF 29N E OF 75W ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.