000
AGXX40 KNHC 291903
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
203 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY3 THEN GEFS MEAN. 

1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
WITH COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS WRN CARIB...SUFFICIENT PRES
GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS FAR SE GULF...YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
STRAITS OF FL FOR NNE WINDS 20-25 KT THERE...DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
TO 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ALONG SW PORTIONS NEAR MEXICAN
COAST WHERE THE COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE NNW WINDS TO
15-20 KT RANGE. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR SE
GULF AND 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THE NE
WINDS IN THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH SHIFTS E AND MAINTAINS PRES
GRADIENT. THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SE GULF WILL DIMINISH SAT
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT IN MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING
THE MOVEMENT OF A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
NE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE SE STATES. DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS. THE CONSENSUS
CALLS FOR A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF MON INTO TUE
ASSISTED IN PART BY BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPING N OF THE BAHAMAS.
THE FRONT STILL LOOKS SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE IMPACT BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA...WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE NW MAINTAINING
STRONG NNE WIND FLOW TO 25 KT AND SEAS 6-10 FT...HIGHEST DOWNWIND
IN GULF OF HONDURAS. WW3 WAS ABOUT 2-3 FT LOW HERE AT 12Z AND HAVE
ADJUSTED MANUALLY TO BRING IN LINE. SEA HAVE DROPPED OFF SLIGHTLY
IN PAST FEW HOURS PER RECENT BUOY OBS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS NW AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. ELSEWHERE BUILDING HIGH PRES
BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 9 FT TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN PERSISTENT
FRESH E FLOW. THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA
WEAKENS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE SWELL
OCCURRING NE OF LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS
UPSTREAM FETCH HAS SHIFTED ALIGNMENT. 

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS
MEAN. 

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED W OF 70W AND LOOKS TO BE DRIFTING NW...
EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO 29N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W.
STRONG NE WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUE NW OF BOUNDARY TO 80W...WITH
SEAS 7-10 FT. FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT FURTHER NEXT FEW DAYS AND
BECOME DIFFUSE BY 48 HRS WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. BIG QUESTION REMAINS IN EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
E COAST LOW FORECAST TO BOMB OUT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. PAST 2 GFS
RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO USE
GEFS MEAN FOR THIS PACKAGE OF PROGS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. GIVEN
RECENT MODEL TRENDS...WE SHOULD HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE BY 00Z RUNS
TONIGHT. BIG SWELL EVENT FOR THE BASIN ON TAP WITH THIS LOW.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.