000
AGXX40 KNHC 281927
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
227 PM EST THU NOV 28 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS
BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DENSER AIR MASS BEHIND THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE SE GULF WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND 3-5
FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS OVER THE SE
GULF WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE
SE GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SAT BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NE AND FURTHER
FROM THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE GULF WATERS
ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BRINGING A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO THE FAR NW GULF WATERS MON BEFORE LIFTING THE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD. THE MAIN UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO APPEAR FARTHER EAST
SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
WITH A WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED BOUNDARY ENTERING THE NW GULF WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER ON MONDAY.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS
BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STALLING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
WEST OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE. OTHERWISE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WINDS TO 25 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 6-9 FT THERE THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9
FT RANGE IN NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND WILL
START TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY SAT
MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WASH OUT BY SAT WITH
TRADES BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA
SHIFTS NE AND FURTHER FROM THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL GUIDANCE.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS
BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO EASTERN CUBA. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-10 FT RANGE W OF
THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 3-5 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS
IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI INTO SAT THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS NE AND FURTHER
FROM THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.