000 AGXX40 KNHC 240759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SREF OUTPUT BLENDED OVER WESTERN GULF. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN LOWER MON- WED DUE TO GALE UNCERTAINTY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. WINDS TO GALE FORCE LINGER OVER THE FAR SW GULF ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ...BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT MODIFIES AND THE GRADIENT LOOSENS. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE GULF LATE TODAY...AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES E FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM MON AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE THROUGH THE N CENTRAL GULF TUE AND ACROSS N FL/S GA THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BUT WITH SOME VARIANCES IN POSITION AND INTENSITY. THE ENSEMBLE GFS AND SREF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ COASTS BY TUE. FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. THERE REMAINS LESS CERTAINTY WRT SOUTHERLY GALES AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE N CENTRAL GULF HOWEVER. EARLIER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THIS SCENARIO...AND THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF FURTHER. ELSEWHERE STRONG NE FLOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS GULF THROUGH WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT OVER NORTHERN HALF OF BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A FEW FRESH TRADE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W. NE TO E WINDS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING AND LIFTING N AGAIN TONIGHT. NORTHERLY SWELL IS APPROACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SWEEP TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH LATE TODAY WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 9 FT. SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL PENETRATE ATLC PASSAGES INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT IN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. A SECOND AND MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WITH STRONG N-NW WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY WED INTO THU...REACHING AS FAR AS THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 5 FOR SOUTHERLY GALES OFF NE FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...REACHING FROM 31N76W TO 29N81W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT...AS IT MOVES S AND REACHES FROM 31N64W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO S FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 24N BY LATE MON BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE INTO TUE. WINDS VEER E TO SE AND DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...EXCEPT FOR N OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW WILL INITIATE BY LATE TUE IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL ENVELOP THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS MON AND TUE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE PROBABILITY OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE LATE TUE INTO WED N OF 30N E OF 75W AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOWS PROBABILITIES FOR THIS DIMINISHING AND THE BEST BET FOR SOUTHERLY GALES WILL BE N OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND REACH FROM 31N70W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED. GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.