000
AGXX40 KNHC 221822
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
122 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3
FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOWER THROUGH DAY 5
DUE TO GALE UNCERTAINTY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF TODAY WITH WEAK
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 25N96W
TO 19N95W BY SAT NIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
NEAR 24N96W BY SUN NIGHT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN ALONG THE USUAL AREAS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF
BY MON BRINGING A SECOND SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WITH THE ABSENCE OF THE ATLC RIDGE THE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE
IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THESE CONDITION SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BELOW 5
FT...EXCEPT FOR 6-7 FT IN NE SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE.
STRONG GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN MON BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE TUE. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT MON THEN
DECREASE TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT. SWELLS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE
ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SUBSIDE
LATE SAT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE
WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL STALL ALONG 24N-25N BY MON NIGHT.
NLY WINDS 25-30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT LATE SUN. WINDS
DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUE. SLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.