000
AGXX40 KNHC 210700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EST THU NOV 21 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN MEDIUM THROUGH DAY 5.

THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE
SE GULF FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO 25N87W HAS DISSIPATED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. A BROAD PRESSURE PATTERN DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHERE A TIGHTER
GRADIENT EXISTS N OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO THE SW OVER LOUISIANA. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE IN THE NE GULF...WITH MAINLY
MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. 

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NW GULF FRI...
MOVING OFFSHORE OF TEXAS/MEXICO FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 27N94W TO 22N98W BY SAT NIGHT.
MAINLY FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT IN THE W CENTRAL AND SW GULF ALONG THE
COAST OF VERACRUZ WHERE GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GALE FORCE
WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE N OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER IN FREQUENT GUSTS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA AREA TO 26N87W TO 25N95W TO 18N95W BY SUN MORNING...WITH
THE EASTERN PORTION PUSHING S OF THE GULF BY EARLY MON WHILE THE
WESTERN PORTION LINGERS IN THE W GULF...LIKELY MOVING BACK TO THE
NW AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING PUSH OF
NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE WITH LOW PRES
POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONT IN THE NW
GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS WITH AN ABSENCE OF ATLC RIDGING N-NE OF THE AREA DUE
TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SW N ATLC.
AS A RESULT...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 3-5 FT SEAS
DOMINATE THE NE HALF OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY SUN. LATE SUN INTO MON A COLD FRONT MAY
MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BEFORE WASHING OUT. ALSO...
LONG PERIOD (15-18 SECONDS) NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE ATLC/CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
SUN INTO EARLY MON...GRADUALLY DECAYING THEREAFTER.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 26N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH FRESH
TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS AS INDICATED BY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER PASSES. LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT TO LOCALLY
FRESH LEVELS S OF 22N ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE FRONT
MAY MANAGE TO PUSH SLIGHTLY TO THE S DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... 
THEN WILL DECAY INTO A REMNANT SHEAR LINE BY 36-48 HOURS.
ASSOCIATED WINDS N OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE FRI NIGHT
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
AND N CENTRAL WATERS BY EARLY SUN...REACHING FROM 31N73W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUN MORNING...THEN FROM 28N65W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS BY MON MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
GMZ019...NONE. 
GMZ021...NONE. 
GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.