000
AGXX40 KNHC 200728
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
228 AM EST WED NOV 20 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

..GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: THE GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
PREFERRED FOR WINDS. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR
WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS MOVE THE FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY 06Z
SAT. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND HAS CONSISTENTLY PUT
GALE CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SHOWS AS HIGH AS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND UKMET SUPPORT GALES WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS. THE MODELS AGREE ON VERY
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH COLD DRY AIR
MOVING OVER THE 80 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT WATERS OF THE SW GULF. THIS
FAVORS THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION. THE GRIDS WILL BE UPDATED WITH A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/MWW3 WITH THE PREVIOUSLY GFS/MWW3-HEAVY
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS.
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE NWPS ADDED TO THE BLEND IN THE ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SUN. SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC HAS DISRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CAPPING WINDS AT A
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL NOT GET A CHANCE TO REBUILD AS A COLD FRONT WILL PASS N OF
THE AREA AND KEEP PRESSURES LOW IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT LOOK FOR NORTHERLY SWELL TO
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE ATLC
PASSAGES TODAY...DIMINISHING THROUGH FRI. THE GFS AND ITS MWW3
LOOK REASONABLE HERE.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
TRADE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN DISRUPTED HERE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL LARGELY BE
DEPENDENT ON SWELL FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA AND THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY NW OF THE AREA. THE 06Z NWPS HAS THE OFFICIAL NHC
WIND FORECAST FOR MELISSA INCORPORATED INTO ITS RUN.
THEREFORE...IT WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR THE SEAS...WITH A NOD
TOWARD THE GFS BASED MWW3 WHICH APPEARS ACCEPTABLE FOR THE COLD
FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT
UNTIL SAT WHEN A NEW NORTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WINDS. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NWPS AND MWW3 FOR WAVES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE GFS APPEARS ACCEPTABLE FOR THE WINDS
WITH BOTH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SW N ATLC AND THE ONE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SECOND FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN. THE
GFS BUILDS WINDS TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE UKMET AND
ECMWF KEEP WINDS TO 25 KT. WITH THE MODELS CONCURRING ON STRONG
HIGH PRES SENDING COLD...DRY AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER 80
DEGREE FAHRENHEIT WATER...THINK THE GFS HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. THE GEFS ONLY PUTS THE
ODDS OF A GALE AT 10 PERCENT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.