000 AGXX40 KNHC 191928 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS THROUGH DAY 3...THEN EVEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 4 AND 5. MWW3 WAS BLENDS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT STRETCHED OUT E TO W ACROSS THE GULF FROM NEAR FORT MYERS SW TO 27N88W AND SW INLAND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. STRONG HIGH PRES IS N OF THE FRONT...WHILE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS TO THE S OF THE FRONT. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT W OF 89W...EXCEPT FOR NE 20-25 KT W OF 94W AND NE 10-15 KT WINDS E OF 87W. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 4-5 FT N OF THE FRONT... EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 5-7 FT W OF 94W AND 3-5 FT E OF 87W. S OF THE FRONT SEAS ARE LOWER...IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE WITH 1-2 FT IN THE FAR S PORTION. THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES WITH FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE FRONT. BY 06Z TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO 26N89W TO FAR NE MEXICO...THE BECOME STATIONARY TO 26N89W TO INLAND NE MEXICO BY 12Z WED. WITH ITS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING NE...THE FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL THEN REACH THE TEXAS COAST FRI NIGHT...AND ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SW GULF BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EARLY SAT NIGHT...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF EARLY ON SUN...AND TO SE OF THE GULF BY SUN EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN FOLLOWED BY COLD DENSE HIGH PRES BRINGING STRONG TO GALE FORCE NLY WINDS BEHIND IT. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO LARGE HEIGHTS BEHIND THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN THE W CENTRAL AND SW GULF ZONES SAT AND SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVES WITH MINOR E PORTION. THE 1438 UTC ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOYS SHOWED NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS N OF ABOUT 14N IN THE CARIBBEAN. S OF 14N THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED E-SE 5-10 KT E OF 75W...AND NW-N WINDS OF 5-10 KT W OF 75W. THE 1258 UTC PASS SHOWED RELATIVLEY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SE TO WNW N OF 14N DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N55W TO NEAR 11N61W. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS REVEAL 3-4 FT SEAS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT S OF 14N AND ALSO W OF 80W IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN NE SWELLS ARE STILL PLAGUING THE NRN TROPICAL N ATLC. ELSEWHERE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...SEAS ARE 4-6 FT IN NE SWELLS. LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 5. THE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS OVER THE NRN TROPICAL N ATLC WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU...BUT YET ANOTHER PULSE OF NE SWELLS IS FORECAST ARRIVE ACROSS THOSE WATERS SAT AND SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 8-9 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 5...AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FAR W PORTION SUN. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N72W SW TO 28N76W TO INLAND FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. A WEAK HIGH CENTER OF 1013 MB IS NEAR 27N70W. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N68W TO SE FLORIDA TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SWD INTO THE NRN WATER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED. THE FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER S AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 29N65W TO 27N75W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WED...THEN SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND SLIDE EASTWARD THU AND FRI. THE STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN WATERS WILL BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SAT AND WEAKEN...WHILE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES W ACROSS THE SE PORTION. A STRONG COLD FRONT...AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY SUN FOLLOWED BY N TO NE WINDS OF AROUND 20-25 KT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE SUN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT LATE SUN NEAR THE NRN BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.