000 AGXX40 KNHC 190746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: UKMET PREFERRED TODAY THEN A GFS/PREVIOUS FORECAST BLEND THROUGH FRI AND A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR SAT FOR WINDS. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SAT. THE 0350Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET IS THE BEST INITIALIZED HERE. ITS SOLUTION IS STRONGER THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE UKMET DIMINISHES THE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE GULF BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE 00Z GEFS DROPS THE CHANCE OF WINDS AT ADVISORY FORCE TO 10 PERCENT BY THAT TIME. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE SHORT RANGE TO REFLECT A PREFERENCE FOR THE UKMET. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF THROUGH FRI. THE GFS AND ITS CORRESPONDING MWW3 SEEM TO BE AS REASONABLE AS ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS HERE. USED THEIR SOLUTIONS TO ADJUST THE GRIDDED FORECAST. ON SAT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST OF THE 00Z MODELS WITH THIS FRONT. THE CMC IS THE FASTEST WITH THE GFS NOT FAR BEHIND. THE TREND IN THE ECMWF SINCE ITS 12Z RUN IS TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION LIKE THE GFS. BY 00Z SUN...THE GFS ALREADY HAS A 40 KT GALE BLOWING OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE SLOWER TO DEVELOP A GALE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE GFS. GIVEN THE TREND IN THE ECMWF TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION...PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST OR STRONG. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR BLENDING THIS FAR IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT IS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS WILL BE USED TO UPDATE THE WINDS SAT. THE MWW3 WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE NWPS PREFERRED IN THE ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SAT. SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS DISRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE GENERALLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT LOOK FOR LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH WED. THE GFS AND ITS MWW3 LOOK REASONABLE HERE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED TRADE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN DISRUPTED HERE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON SWELL FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA AND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS N OF THE AREA WED. THE 06Z NWPS HAS THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND FORECAST INCORPORATED INTO ITS RUN. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR THE SEAS...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE GFS BASED MWW3 WHICH APPEARS ACCEPTABLE FOR THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS...EXCEPT THE ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH WED. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SWELL FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IMPACTING SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW WATERS PUSHES THROUGH AND BRINGS NEW NORTHERLY SWELL WITH IT. THE NWPS IS PREFERRED FOR SEAS WITH SUBTROPICAL MELISSA. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THAN THE OTHER 00Z MODELS...AND THE OBSERVATIONS FAVOR THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS. THE UKMET WAS PREFERRED WITH THE FRONT IN THE GULF...BUT HESITANT TO LEAN TOWARD IT HERE AS IT IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BETTER INITIALIZED...SO IT WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE WINDS EARLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. BY THU...THE GFS/MWW3 FORECAST LOOKS ACCEPTABLE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.