000 AGXX40 KNHC 171959 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN U.S. SW TO THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVING SEWD. THE LATEST AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS SLACKEN DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER E WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS E OF 84W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE BUOYS ARE PRESENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT... EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 4-6 FT S OF 25N E OF 84W. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH EARLY MON ALLOWING FOR S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE WESTERN TO SPREAD EWD...WITH THE COLD FRONT W OF THE AREA MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF WATERS MON MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO VICINITY NE MEXICO EARLY ON TUE...AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE S TEXAS COAST WED...AND OVER THE FAR SE AND S CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS THU. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 OR 7 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF MON AND TUE AND SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT WED...TO 2-3 FT LATE WED THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1520 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SW PART OF THE CARIBBEAN... AND A SOLID SWATH OF NE 20 KT IN THE LEE OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. IT ALSO SHOWED LIGHTER NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE 1340 UTC ASCAT INDICATED N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-67W...N OF THE REMNANT SHEAR CLOUD LINE...AND 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE 1338 UTC ASCAT PASS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC HIGHLIGHTED SE-S 5-10 KT WINDS S OF 13N...AND SW-W WINDS OF 5-10 KT N OF 13N WITH HIGHER S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE NE PORTION OF THOSE WATERS. BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 4-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 6-7 FT SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. THE 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT/LOW SIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES WHERE LARGE NW-N NLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THOSE WATER THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME MORE NE IN DIRECTION MON THROUGH LATE WED AS THEY THEN SUBSIDE INTO FRI WITH THE LEFTOVER SWELL MAINLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AT THAT TIME. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS WINDS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS FOR WINDS. USED NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS OUT TO DAY 5. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES HIGH PRES RIDGING AS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1518 UTC REVEALED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...WHILE THE 1336 UTC PASS SHOWED STRONGER NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION N OF 21N. LIGHTER NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OVER THE NW PORTION WITH WIND DIRECTION E-SE N OF 27N W OF 77W. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW RATHER HIGH SEA STATE...8-12 FT RANGE IN N-NE SWELLS N OF 19N E OF 67W...AND 6-8 FT S OF 26N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 67W. SEAS ARE LOWER...3-5 FT ELSEWHERE AND 4-7 FT IN THE FAR SW PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LOW PRES BECOMING ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL WILL BE THE SWELL GENERATOR THROUGH WED AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LARGE N-NE SWELLS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN THROUGH MOST OF MON...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECAYING THROUGH WED AS BY THEN THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW (SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL) WILL HAVE LIFTED FAR ENOUGH TO THE N. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO S FLORIDA BY EARLY TUE...FROM NEAR 31N71W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN NIGHT...AND REACH FROM NEAR 28N65W TO VICINITY OF S FLORIDA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU AND FRI WHILE LOSING ITS DEFINITION. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WED NIGHT AND REMAIN AT THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE GENERAL RANGE OF 8-10 FT BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT TUE AND WED...AND SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT THU AND TO 5-6 FT FRI WITH HIGHER SEAS OF ABOUT 7 FT NEAR THE N AND E SECTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.