000 AGXX40 KNHC 170757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE NOAA SHIP PISCES...WTDL...OBSERVED 30 KT WINDS NEAR 29N86.5W FROM 04-06Z. BUOY 42039 JUST TO THE E HAS BEEN REPORTING 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE OVERNIGHT. A JASON-2 PASS FROM 0015Z ALSO CONFIRMED 8-10 FT SEAS IN THIS AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS WERE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THE GRIDS WERE BEEFED UP ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH HERE TODAY. A COLD FRONT REACHES THE GULF MON. THE 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET ARE WEAKER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND NAVGEM WHICH REACH 20 KT AT 12Z MON. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS OVER A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 20 KT OR GREATER ON MON...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ENOUGH HERE TO DISCOUNT THE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS SOLUTION AND ITS CORRESPONDING MWW3 ARE ACCEPTABLE HERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...MWW3...AND NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE 0248 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRES TO THE N IS WEAKENED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEPENING CENTRAL ATLC LOW PRES SYSTEM. ALL OF THE MODELS SEEM TO DO A REASONABLY GOOD JOB WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS SEEMS AS GOOD AS ANY FOR THE WIND SOLUTION. BLENDED IN THE NWPS WITH THE MWW3 AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE 0106 ASCAT AND 0406 OSCAT PASSES SHOW SOME FRESH NE WINDS JUST W OF THE TROUGH. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED EARLY IN THE FORECAST BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS. TO THE NE...THE WIND FIELD AROUND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...WHICH INCLUDES GALE CONDITONS...CONTINUES TO BE TOO WEAK IN THE 00Z MODELS. THE LOW IS ERODING THE SURFACE HIGH PRES AND WEAKENING THE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE GFS HAS THE BEST DEPICTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM INITIALLY AND CARRIES A STRONGER LOW MON AND TUE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND TRACKS IT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW WHEN IT BEGINS TO BE PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED. GIVEN THE WEAK INITIALIZATIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL ADJUST THE LOW POSITION SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TRANSLATES TO DISRUPTED TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. N SWELL FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP THE SEAS HIGHER THAN WINDS ALONE WOULD SUPPORT. THE NWPS SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB WITH THE HIGH SEAS WITH THE LOW...SO BLENDED ITS SOLUTION IN WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 TO GET THE WAVE FIELD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...MWW3...AND NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. ELSEWHERE...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY TUE THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NAVGEM. THE GEFS SHOWS AT LEAST A 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF A STRONG BREEZE IN NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR THE GFS WITH THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE WEAK INITIALIZATION OF THE MODELS WITH A FEW OF THE FEATURES TODAY...WILL BLEND IN THE GFS FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS WIND FORECAST AND BLEND THE MWW3 AND NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.