000 AGXX40 KNHC 160748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF MON-WED. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 0312 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NE GULF LATER TODAY. A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. THE MODELS AGREE ON LIFTING THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF NORTHWARD TODAY ALONG WITH AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE 00Z ECMWF CARRIED STRONGER WINDS INITIALLY THAN THE GFS AND UKMET...BUT PLACED THEM TOO FAR TO THE W AND WAS WEAK WITH WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE 00Z GFS APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB ANALYZING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 25 KT WINDS. THEREFORE...THE GFS WAS PRIMARILY USED TO ADJUST THE WINDS IN THE EARLY PERIODS...BUT THE MAX STRENGTH WAS NUDGED UPWARDS LIKE THE ECMWF BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS TO 33 KT AT BUOY 42003. THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES THE GULF MON. THE 00Z GFS AND UKMETARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MON AND BUILD THE RIDGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOW THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON. THERE IS A GENERAL TREND TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION HERE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE GFS/UKMET AND WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: CARIBBEAN - LATEST GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL N ATLC - GFS-ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...MWW3...EC WAVE...AND NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED ACCORDING TO THE 2240 UTC WINDSAT PASS. THE GFS GENERALLY DOES A GOOD JOB WITH TRADES HERE AND WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE MWW3 AND THE NWPS...WITH THE LARGER MWW3 SEAS WEIGHTED HIGHER NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE NWPS SEAS WEIGHTED HIGHER IN THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE MWW3 IS GENERALLY TOO HIGH UNDER THIS TYPE OF REGIME. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WEAKENED ENOUGH BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA AND THE DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TO KEEP WINDS WEAKER THAN NORMAL. THE PRES DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE RATHER SMALL TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THEIR CARIBBEAN FORECAST. THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE HERE TO USE TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA WILL DEVELOP A WAVE THIS WEEKEND THAT THE MODELS AGREE ON DEEPENING TO AROUND 1000 MB BY MON N-NE OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE GFS IS NOW THE DEEPEST AND THE MOST WESTERLY SOLUTION WITH THE LOW. THE UKMET AND NAVGEM SUPPORT A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BUT NOT AS DEEP AS THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS...WHICH MAKES A GFS/ECMWF APPEALING FOR ADJUSTING THE WIND GRIDS AS WELL AS THE SEAS. THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS LOW...BUT N SWELL FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP THE SEAS HIGHER THAN WINDS ALONE WOULD SUPPORT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...MWW3...AND NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. ELSEWHERE...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY TUE THAN THE ECMWF. THE UKMET FAVORS THE STRONGER GFS FORECAST HERE...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.