000
AGXX40 KNHC 140744
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...  

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS 

THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF WATERS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 23N97W TO THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND IT IS STILL
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
MAINLY S OF 22N AND ACROSS THE SE GULF...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF
30-35 KT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT. AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS 
OF 16-18 FT OVER THE SW GULF WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
BLOWING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS
THE SW GULF LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM N TO S TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AS
HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES E. HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL
SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER E AND THE TROUGH WEAKENS.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY SAT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE NW GULF ON MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE SAME ASCAT PASS VERIFIED THE
EXISTENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN LEE OF CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN PER A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH PRES BRIDGES ACROSS THE FRONT
LOCATED NOW ACROSS THE SE GULF...WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
WINDS EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS E OF 80W. WINDS TO VEER QUICKLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO E AND THEN E TO SE AND DIMINISHING
TO 15 KT OR LESS BY FRI AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

FRESH WINDS AND E-NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 7-9 FT IN TROPICAL N
ATLC BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY. WINDS TO
DIMINISH FRI-SAT TO GENERALLY 10-15 KT THERE WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE
TO 5-6 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N65W THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SE WATERS
THIS EVENING THEN STALL OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA WHILE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 25-30 KT FOLLOW
THE FRONT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS ZONE AMZ113...
THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ON FRI AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. THEN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION SAT THROUGH MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY. 
GMZ025...GALE WARNING TODAY.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.