000 AGXX40 KNHC 120746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS CONFINED TO THE FAR SW GULF AND CLOSE TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N-NW WINDS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 95W. A FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA...JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N97W THIS EVENING...AND FROM SE FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023 WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WED NIGHT INTO THU IN ZONE GMZ023. THE 00Z GEFS ONLY SHOWS UP TO A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023...BUT THE SREF SHOWS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN ZONE GMZ017 AND 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE IN ZONE GMZ023 THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THESE MODELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES E TO THE CAROLINAS...WITH STRONG WINDS LINGERING IN THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BY FRI...A TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. IN ADDITION... A SURFACE WAVE MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTING STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0252 ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN ALTIMETER PASS JUST WEST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS INDICATED SEAS TO 9 FT. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY WED EVENING FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AND THU. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE N TOWARD THE SE GULF THU EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY AND HIGH PRES TO THE N DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC. FRESH WINDS AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 8-9 FT IN TROPICAL N ATLC INTO WED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. CURRENTLY...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SEEN PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FRESH ELY WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NW DOMINATES THE REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N67W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL IT MOVES SE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A PAIR OF BUOYS LOCATED NE OF THE BAHAMAS SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED...AND LIE FROM NEAR 26N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE ALONG 24N FRI. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN NW WATERS IN ZONE AMZ111 N OF 30N EARLY WED. THE SREF SHOWS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113 ON WED. CONSIDERING THE CRITERIA FOR GALES INCLUDES FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING HERE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THIS AREA. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE AIR/SEA TEMPERATURE CONTRAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE WINDS. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THU AND FRI AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SE WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE SE IN NW WATERS AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING WED. AMZ113...GALE WARNING WED. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.