000 AGXX40 KNHC 100745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM RANGE DAYS 3 TO 5. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT BASED ON BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES SLIDES EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ DUE TO A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING AND MOVES SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH MON EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCING BY STRONGER HIGH PRES ON TUE PUSHING THE FRONT TO A POSITION FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W TUE EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE SW GULF WED INTO THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES E INTO THE CAROLINAS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ZONES GMZ023-025 WED INTO THU. A 40-50% OF GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE BLOWING ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED. EXPECT THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 17N ALONG 56W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES MAINLY FRESH WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. BUOYS 41040 AND 41300 LOCATED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES WWD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING LATE TODAY INTO MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM RANGE DAYS 3 TO 5. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ANALYZED AS A SHEAR LINE IN THE 0600 UTC MAP...EXTENDS FROM 26N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE STILL NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE SHEAR LINE WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE S OF THE SHEAR LINE E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE WASHES OUT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS EARLY MON WITH LITTLE IMPACT ANTICIPATED S OF 31N. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS ZONE AMZ111 WED MORNING AND ZONE AMZ113 WED AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. EXPECT RAISING SEAS IN THE 12-16 FT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ZONES AMZ111-113. A 60-70% OF GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF 30N AND W OF 78W BY WED MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED INTO THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED INTO WED NIGHT. AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED INTO THU. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.