000 AGXX40 KNHC 070815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MOST OF E PART OF BASIN PAST 24 HOURS AS STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NE HAS RETREATED TO THE ENE AND A NEW COLD FRONT IS ENTERING NW PORTIONS ATTM. RECENT 0300Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT 20-25 KT WITH BUOY 42020 UP TO 9 FT ALREADY. FRONT TO MOVE SE ACROSS BASIN NEXT 48 HOURS BUT WILL HANG UP OFFSHORE OF N AND NW YUCATAN...WHILE COLD AIR SPILLS DOWN MEXICAN COAST AND BLASTS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC TO PRODUCE GALES ON BOTH SIDES OF ISTHMUS. GFS-ECMWF BLEND OF FRONT INDICATED BOUNDARY FROM BIG BEND REGION TO FAR WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z TONIGHT...SRN FLORIDA TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE 00Z SAT...AND WASHING OUT FROM NEAR MIAMI TO CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W WHILE STATIONARY CONVERGENCE LINE PERSISTS ACROSS SW GULF JUST OFFSHORE OF COAST BY 00Z SUN. GALES EXPECTED ALONG CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST BY 15-18Z THIS AFTERNOON 35-40 KT... SPREADING S OF CABO ROJO AND INTO FAR W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH GALES ENDING N OF CABO ROJO BY 06Z TONIGHT AND ENDING ACROSS SW PORTIONS BY 00Z SAT. SREF PROBS...HOWEVER..SHOW PROBS >20% THROUGH 15Z ON SAT AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN 30 KT THERE THROUGH 12Z. PEAK SEAS EXPECTED 14-15 FT TONIGHT AROUND 06Z. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SE WITH FRONTAL POSITION PAST 24 HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WEAKENING HIGH PRES ACROSS NW ATLC AND DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FAR NW CARIB TONIGHT...BUT WITH RECENT 0258Z ASCAT PASS STILL SHOWING NEAR 20 KT WINDS IN LEE OF CUBA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AT BEST ACROSS BASIN AS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS HAS FILLED BY 24-30 HOURS AND LEAVING WEAK NW TO SE TROUGHING ACROSS W PORTIONS. LARGE NNE SWELL HAS MOVED INTO SE PORTIONS OF SW N ATLC WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CURRENTLY HITTING ATLC COASTS OF NE CARIB ISLANDS AND MOVING THROUGH PASSAGES...AND WILL BLEED INTO NE CARIB WATERS NEXT 48 HOURS. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TRADES EXPECTED E OF 75W TODAY THROUGH FRI THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SHIFT E INTO NW ATLC. LATE SEASON ELY WAVE ALONG 42W WILL REACH ABOUT 58W BY 72 HRS AND BRING SOME WEATHER WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INTO LESSER ANTILLES SAT-SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND COLD FRONT HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC PAST 12 HRS WITH SHEAR LINE EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR 26N68W. GALES HAVE CONTINUED N OF THE FRONT AND TO NEAR 31N MUCH OF PAST 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE NE SWELL THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS THROUGH SUN. MODEST AREA OF 20 KT ENE WINDS PERSIST N OF SHEAR LINE AND WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY AS HIGH N OF AREA CONTINUES TO RETREAT AND GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH BASIN...REACHING N FLORIDA ALMOST TO JAX BY 00Z THIS EVENING THEN OFF THE FL COAST TONIGHT...REACHING FROM NEAR PALM BEACH WSW INTO SE GULF BY 00Z SAT THEN DRIFTING S TO EXTREME S FL BY 00Z SUN. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT WILL INITIALLY PRODUCE N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY FRI THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN BECOME NE 20-25 KT AS FRONT SHIFT SE ACROSS MUCH OF NW PART THROUGH FRI EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY SAT EVENING AND NIGHT AS HIGH BEHIND FRONT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE UNDERFORECAST NNE SWELL GENERATED BEHIND RECENT FRONT THAT HAS BEGUN TO HIT CARIB ISLANDS AND SE WATERS PAST 6-8 HRS. BUOYS SHOW PEAK SWELL AT 13 SECS...WHILE MODELS HAD 11 SECS...AND SWH ABOUT 1-3 FT LOW OF CURRENT OBS. THIS SWELL TO LAST THROUGH SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.