000 AGXX40 KNHC 041902 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 202 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN U.S. HAS INCREASED THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS TODAY. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE ELY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BLOWING ACROSS WATERS N OF 22N E OF 87W. A PAIR OF BUOYS LOCATED IN THE NE GULF ARE REPORTING SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-9 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD W ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE THU...AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS...INCLUDING ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZO23...BEHIND FRONT LATE THU THROUGH FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY 7-9 FT THROUGH WED MORNING E OF 90W BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH...HIGHER IN STRAIT OF FLORIDA. AGAIN...EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 12-13 FT W OF 95W IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N75W. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO THE NW OF THE CENTER AND THE CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE LATEST NHC WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A LOW CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY 72 HOURS...THE LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH NEAR 81W. WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN HAS DISSIPATED AND NOW A SHEAR LINE IS NOTED ON THE 1800 UTC MAP OVER EASTERN CUBA. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED IN LEE OF CUBA BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE N OF 20N. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TRADES WILL RETURN TO E HALF OF BASIN WED THROUGH FRI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO AROUND 7 FT IN N TO NE SWELL N OF 17N LATE THU INTO FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 28W66W THEN CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE TO 26N70W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ARE BEGINNING TO QUICKLY BUILD SEAS...WITH VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE WINDS DROP OF QUICKLY. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE S INTO NW PORTIONS TONIGHT WITH WINDS 25-30 KT BEHIND IT SPREADING ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN FREQUENT GUSTS THERE. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY TO 10-12 FT BEHIND FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED E OF BAHAMAS...BUT SECONDARY MAX OFFSHORE WATERS N OF CANAVERAL. MODELS SUGGESTING MAX SEAS OF 13-14 FT IN NE CORNER OF FORECAST AREA BEHIND FRONT AROUND 00Z WED BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU REACHING THE ATLC COASTS OF CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BY WED EVENING-NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO THU NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.