000 AGXX40 KNHC 020814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 414 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW ATLC AS SLOW MOVING FRONT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SE AND REACHES FROM FL BIG BEND SW TO NEAR 25N90W TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST. SECONDARY FRONT STALLED ALONG TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING NOW SHIFTING SE OFF THE COAST WITH COASTAL PLATFORMS REPORTING NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT DIRECTLY BEHIND IT. 1026 MB HIGH ACROSS COLORADO FORECAST TO SHIFT SE THROUGH THIS EVENING TO FORCE STRONG NLY FLOW DOWN W PORTIONS OF GULF W OF 94W WITH GALES EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF COAST FROM NEAR TAMPICO AT 15Z SPREADING SWD INTO FAR WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND ENDING BY 12Z SUN. GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR GALES HAVE INCREASED TO 40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME WHILE SREF NOW ALSO BEGINS PROBS AT 15Z AND MAXIMIZED BY 00Z AT 80 PERCENT. WW3 APPEARS A BIT LOW AND SLOW WITH SEAS SPILLING SWD WITH SURGE AND WILL BLEND IN ECMWF TO BRING PEAK SEAS TO 11-12 FT BY 00Z AND 12-13 FT IN SW BAY OF CAMPECHE 06-12Z SUN. SECONDARY FRONT TO HANG UP AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SW GULF SUN MORNING WITH LLVL FLOW BEGINNING TO VEER SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF BASIN BY THAT TIME. REMNANTS OF FRONT TO DRIFT NW WHILE PRIMARY FRONT IS FORCED SE INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL MON AND LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...AND FRESH ELY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS ENTIRE E HALF OF BASIN BY TUE MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT AND AT LEAST 8-9 THROUGH STRAITS OF FL MON AND TUE...AND HIGHER AGAINST CURRENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-GEFS BLEND COMPLEX SCENARIO SETTING UP ACROSS CARIB BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT W INTO W PORTIONS YIELDING UPPER RIDGING TO THE E OF 78W AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING N AND NW ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO ATLC WATERS TO ABOUT 24N SUN ONLY TO BE SHUNTED SE BY APPROACHING FRONT MON. TWO LLVL TROUGHS MOVING WWD ACROSS E CARIB PAST 24 HOURS NOW APPEAR ALONG ABOUT 73.5W...AND ERN-MOST SHIFTING NW ACROSS PR AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT OF THIS S OF HAITI WITHIN 24 HOURS AND REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY...WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NW ACROSS E SIDE OF LOW. HOWEVER CURRENT STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS LOW MAY FORM WELL TO THE S OF MODEL OUTPUT AND CLOSER TO COLOMBIAN COAST...OR AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS FILL THIS LOW WITHIN 72 HRS AND THUS NO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW. LEADING GULF MEX FRONT TO BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY 72 HRS WITH FRESH NELY FLOW IN LEE OF CUBA MON NIGHT AND TUE PER GFS AND GEFS. SEAS REACHING 4-6 FT IN LEE OF CUBA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL BY TUE. ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...BROAD RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC YIELDING LONG FETCH OF NE TO E WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELY SWELL INTO REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING FROM 6-8 FT THIS MORNING TO 5-7 FT NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HRS WITH STRONGER WEIGHT IN ECMWF BEYOND 72 HRS. WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W PROVIDING E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT S OF RIDGE AND S-SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT N THROUGH NE OF BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO ERODE WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS GULF COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY...AND REACHES 31N74W TO PALM BEACH BY 00Z THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT SE INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STRAITS BY 00Z 00Z MON. STRONG HIGH BUILDING BEHIND FRONT TO PRODUCE INCREASING AND SLOWLY VEERING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK AT THE LEAST...WITH HIGH SEAS BUILDING ACROSS OPEN ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED. EUROPEAN MODELS AMPLIFY TROUGHING CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB NWD MON AND TUE TO MAINTAIN A MORE NE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY THIS DIRECTION WITH GEFS MEAN TUE-WED. NELY WINDS WILL HOWL ACROSS ATLC WATERS AND THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED GALES AND CERTAINLY IN FREQUENT GUSTS. AM BUILDING IN HIGHER SEAS AND LARGER AREA OF 8+ SEAS THAN DEPICTED BY WW3 WITH BLEND OF ECWAVE. THIS WILL BE STRONG EVENT FOR BAHAMAS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT IN LEE OF BAHAMAS AND 10-14 FT ON ATLC SIDE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.